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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 3rd, 2022–Mar 4th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

The March sun can really pack a punch and destabilize the upper snowpack. Natural and human triggered avalanches remain possible and give overhead hazards like large and looming cornices a wide berth.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Change is in the air with a strong ridge set up through the weekend. This will bring clear and sunny skies, light northerly wind, and rising freezing levels.

Thursday Night: Some cloud cover with light snowfall amounts near 10cm. Ridgetop wind light from the northwest. Freezing levels dropping to 800 m.

Friday/ Saturday: Sunshine with some clouds. Ridgetop wind light to moderate from the northeast. Freezing levels rise to 1500 m during the day.

Sunday: Sunny skies with freezing levels rising 2000 to 2500 m during the day. Ridgetop wind moderate from the North.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches observed on Thursday. Poor visibility limited observations.  

On Tuesday, numerous size 1 wet loose avalanches were reported at below treeline elevations. Poor visibility made for limited alpine observations. Check out this MIN Report for more details at the Mt. Cain area. 

On Monday, our field team observed widespread natural avalanche activity size 1-2.5. A skier-triggered size 2 storm slab was reported at Mt Cain on Sunday in this MIN.

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm snow is dry above 1500 m and has seen some wind affect, moist and wet exist below. An overnight refreeze will likely form a new surface crust capping the upper snowpack at lower elevations. Some areas may see a supportive crust and others breakable. The mid-February melt- freeze crust can be found approximately 80 cm beneath the surface with some spotty surface hoar crystals above. Snowpack testing showed hard and resistant planar results on the interface. 

A well settled and strong mid and lower snowpack exist below.

Terrain and Travel

  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.