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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 28th, 2022–Mar 29th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Cold, clear nights are needed to lock the low elevation snowpack (which has the consistency of oatmeal) in place.

Danger levels will rise with daytime warming and solar input.

Weather Forecast

The passage of warm rain will be followed by a brief clearing Tues, then back into a mix of flurries/showers with fluctuating freezing levels (FZL).

Tonight: Clearing, Alp low -7*C, FZL 600m

Tues: Mix of sun/cloud, Alp high -1*C, FZL 1900m, light S winds

Wed: Cloudy/scattered flurries, 5cm, Alp high -2*C, FZL 600m rising to 1700m, light SW winds

Snowpack Summary

A total of ~20cm new snow above 2000m. A buried crust exists up to 2200m on all aspects and extends into the alpine on solar aspects. Pockets of storm/wind slab in the alpine and into tree line. The March 11th crust is buried 50-80cm. Warm rain soaked the snowpack below tree line, preventing a crust recovery overnight.

Avalanche Summary

We are currently in a natural avalanche cycle, with rain to 2000m saturating slopes below tree line. Chunky, moist/wet debris has been observed "flowing" onto the fans of the avalanche paths.

Glide cracks are widening and moving; show them respect during the rain and warm temps.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.