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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2022–Mar 17th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Practice good travel habits and choose conservative, low consequence lines. A buried weak layer has been reactive in recent days, creating large and surprising avalanches.

Make sure to read the Avalanche Problems section.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

A series of frontal systems coming in off the coast will bring light precipitation throughout the week.

Wednesday Overnight: Mainly cloudy, light snowfall, up to 5 cm of accumulation. Freezing level dropping to 900 m. Moderate to strong southwest winds. 

Thursday: Cloudy with snowfall, 5-15 cm of accumulation. Freezing level rising to 1500 m. Moderate to strong southwesterly winds. 

Friday: Partially cloudy, light flurries. Freezing level rising to 1500 m in the afternoon. Light to moderate southwesterly winds.

Saturday: Mainly cloudy, light flurries. Freezing level around 1000 m. Light to moderate southwesterly winds. 

Avalanche Summary

Riders may get surprised by widely propagating persistent slabs that are sitting on a weak layer of surface hoar. Remote-triggering is a concern. Be aware of above and adjacent slopes.

Tuesday was an active day for avalanche activity. Throughout the region, operators reported numerous natural and human-triggered storm slabs. These slabs mainly occurred on north-facing (shaded) aspects in the alpine and treeline and failed on a buried weak layer of surface hoar. The most reactivity has been noted near Blue River, Valemont, and south of McBride.

Snowpack Summary

Continued light precipitation will add to 30-60 cm of recent settling storm snow at treeline and above. Storm snow tapers rapidly below treeline, where moist snow or a melt-freeze crust can be expected from rain and warm temperatures.

This new snow is sitting on various surfaces, including hard wind-affected snow, sun crusts on southerly slopes, facetted snow, and isolated pockets of surface hoar. The new snow is bonding poorly to this old surface, especially where a facet/crust layer or surface hoar is present below.

The lower snowpack is generally well-settled and strong in most areas, with prominent crust layers 50 to 100 cm deep. No recent persistent slab avalanches have been reported on these layers.

Terrain and Travel

  • Conservative terrain selection is critical, choose only well supported, low consequence lines.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Surface hoar distribution is highly variable. Avoid generalizing your observations.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.