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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2022–Feb 16th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Small, but reactive wind slabs may form if 10 cm or more of snow accumulates throughout the day.

Small avalanches can have serious consequences in extreme terrain. Carefully evaluate your line for wind slab hazard before you commit to it. 

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with flurries; 3-5 cm / Strong, northwest wind / Low of -4 / Freezing level 500 m.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with flurries; 3-5 cm and another 15-25 cm overnight / Strong, northwest wind / High of 0 / Freezing level 1000 m.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with flurries; 3-5 cm / Strong, northwest wind / High of 1 / Freezing level 1100 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with flurries; 5-10 cm / Strong, west wind / High of 2 / Freezing level 1200 m.

Avalanche Summary

Several small (size 1) skier triggered wind slab avalanches failing on the crust were reported on Monday. The size and distribution of the wind slabs is expected to increase with the incoming snow Wednesday afternoon.

 

Snowpack Summary

5-15 cm of wind-pressed snow overlies a thick (10-30 cm) rain crust that extends to mountain tops. This crust has created challenging travel conditions and a "slide-for-life" hazard on steep slopes.

Small wind slabs may be found on lee features in the alpine. 

The weak layers in the snowpack (such as the crust or surface hoar layers down around 100 cm) are unlikely to human trigger in areas where a hard surface crust is present. If the surface crust is warmed up and breaks down, triggering persistent slab avalanches becomes more likely.

However, cornices overhead are a primary concern during sunny, warm, or windy conditions. Cornice failures may trigger very large persistent slab avalanches that would otherwise be difficult to human trigger.

Terrain and Travel

  • Small avalanches can have serious consequences in extreme terrain. Carefully evaluate your line for wind slab hazard before you commit to it.
  • Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.