Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 1st, 2025–Mar 2nd, 2025

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies, Akamina, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Another day of dramatic, sustained warming should keep persistent slabs near their tipping point. Enjoy the balmy temperatures in low consequence terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A natural size 2.5 persistent slab was observed in the Castle area on Friday. It released from a cross-loaded gulley at treeline and ran on the late-January weak layer, 50 cm deep in this instance.

In nearby Warterton, five natural size 2.5 - 3 persistent slabs were observed on north through east slopes at treeline and in the alpine, one triggered by a cornice and all failing on the same January layer, which is expected to remain reactive throughout the ongoing warmup.

Snowpack Summary

A melt-freeze crust or moist snow likely makes up the surface on all but high elevation north aspects. High overnight freezing levels mean crust recovery may be weak. This crust tops the upper part of 30 cm of settling recent snow, which has been redistributed by strong southwest winds at treeline and above.

The main feature of the region's overall shallow snowpack is a persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets from late January now buried 40 to 60 cm deep (see photo below). This layer is expected to remain reactive throughout the weekend warmup.

Check out this MIN for recent conditions in the Elkford area.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Clear. 10 to 20 km/h west ridgetop wind, up to 40 km/h in alpine, easing. Freezing level peaking at 3400 m.

Sunday

Sunny with cloud increasing in the evening. 0 to 10 km/h west ridgetop wind, shifting northeast late in the day. Freezing level falling from 3300 m to 2700 m. Treeline temperature 7 °C.

Monday

Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing less than 5 cm of new snow above 1500 m. 15 - 25 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1500 m. Treeline temperature -1 °C.

Tuesday

Sunny. 5 - 15 km/h west ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1800 m. Treeline temperature around 0 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.