Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2026–Jan 3rd, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Rockies, East Kakwa, Kakwa, Pine Pass, Tumbler.

Stick to conservative terrain, watch for signs of instability and avoid overhead hazards.

Recent very large avalanches have occurred in the region.

Confidence

Moderate

Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Avalanche Summary

Dec 31

A very large naturally-triggered size 3.5 avalanche failed on the persistent weak layer.

Dec 30

A large (Size 2.5) remotely triggered persistent slab avalanche was reported in the Bullmoose riding area, near Tumbler Ridge. See the MIN for more details
A widespread natural avalanche cycle was reported in the Tumbler Ridge area, with avalanches up to size 2.5 on a variety of aspects.

Snowpack Summary

A broad range of new snow amounts has fallen across the region, with isolated areas (around Pine Pass) receiving 70 cm of snow over the last few days. This snow has been redistributed into deeper deposits in leeward alpine and treeline terrain by variable winds.

A persistent weak layer formed in mid-December that consists of a prominent crust with weak facets, was the cause of a recent large natural avalanche cycle. This layer is now buried 50 to 170 cm deep, depending on the aspect and wind loading.

In thin snowpack areas, faceted grains or depth hoar may exist at the base of the snowpack.

Check out this MIN post from the field team for more details on conditions at Core Lodge.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy. 2 to 3 cm of snow. 10 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -11 °C.

Friday
Mostly cloudy. 3 to 5 cm of snow. 10 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -14 °C.

Saturday
Mostly cloudy. 3 to 10 cm of snow. 10 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -14 °C.

Sunday
Mostly cloudy. 1 to 10 cm of snow. 20 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -18 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Recent wind has varied in direction, so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind-exposed terrain.
Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.