Avalanche forecast

South Columbia

Feb 16 – 17, 2015Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Fresh wind slabs may be lurking behind ridges and terrain features. Cornices are also large and weak and could collapse.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    3–6
    Persistent slabs are most likely to be triggered from thin snowpack areas, or with large triggers like cornice fall or an avalanche stepping down.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Expect loose wet sluffs on steep sun-exposed slopes. These could trigger persistent weaknesses if they gain significant mass.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will maintain mostly sunny skies through Wednesday. Freezing levels bounce between valley bottom overnight and 1500-2000 m during the day. It could be even warmer on Wednesday with an above freezing layer near 2500 m. Winds are generally light gusting to moderate from the W-NW. The ridge flattens slightly late on Wednesday and allows a weak system to cross the province on Thursday. This could bring a few centimetres of snow, more cloud, and slightly cooler temperatures.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity tapered off on Sunday as temperatures cooled but conditions allowed for good viewing of the natural avalanche cycle from the previous few days. Many observers reported natural and cornice triggered slabs, typically size 1.5-3 with a few up to size 3.5. Sunshine may spark a new avalanche cycle on steep slopes (mainly loose wet) or cause more cornices to fall.

Snowpack Summary

The snow surface is a mix of crusts, 5-10 cm of low density snow, or wind affected snow. Below the recent crust you may find moist snow for a few days yet. At alpine elevations, new wind slabs or storm slabs may be found and cornices are large and weak. The late-Jan crust/surface hoar layer, buried up to a metre deep, gives variable results in snowpack tests with some continuing to report sudden "pops" results. The mid-January surface hoar is typically down 80-120cm. Chances of triggering this have decreased, but it could possibly be triggered from thin or rocky snowpack areas; or perhaps with a cornice fall, or an avalanche stepping down.

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