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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 8th, 2022–Apr 9th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

As freezing levels drop storm snow at higher elevations may remain reactive to human triggers. Watch for changing conditions as you gain elevation, and as you transition into wind affected terrain. 

Confidence

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected. Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

Temperatures remain cool over the weekend. Convective activity may bring short and localized bursts of snowfall.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries and moderate westerly winds. Freezing levels drop to near 500 m overnight. 

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with flurries of up to 5 cm. Freezing levels around 1000 m. Moderate westerly winds.

SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with scattered flurries possible. Freezing levels reach 1100 m. Light northeast winds. 

MONDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Freezing levels reach 1200 m. Light northeast winds. 

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, several size 1.5 slab avalanches were triggered by skiers and riders. Natural wet avalanche activity was observed to size 1.5 on south facing slopes in many areas. Avalanches were observed up to size 3 in isolated features (where the snowpack sits over smooth rock slabs). Natural avalanche activity is expected to have continued overnight with rain, snow and wind. Avalanche activity is expected to decrease as freezing levels drop. 

On Wednesday, natural wet avalanches were observed up to size 2.5 in steep terrain features. Several cornices falls have also been observed within the last 3 days. 

On Tuesday, a skier remotely triggered two size 1 storm slabs on a northeast aspect at 2000 m in the north of the region. These were 30 cm thick and failed on the underlying melt-freeze crust. 

Snowpack Summary

At high elevations 10-30 cm of recent wind affected storm snow sits over moist snow, observed to around 2200m. Southwest winds have likely created deeper deposits on north and east facing slopes. 

A widespread and supportive crust is buried 40-60 cm deep, below recent settling storm snow. This crust has been reactive to human and natural triggers within the last 5 days, but reports suggest it is beginning to bond. 

Lower elevations hold wet snow from heavy rainfall, that will form a substantial crust as temperatures fall. The middle and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.