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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 14th, 2019–Mar 15th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Watch for wind slabs in exposed features which likely remain sensitive to human triggering. The strong spring sun could easily produce loose wet avalanches on unshaded slopes Friday, especially in the afternoon.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Friday offers one last day of temperatures on the cool side before the heat really comes on for the first time this season. THURSDAY NIGHT: Freezing level near valley bottom, moderate to strong wind generally out of the west with periods of northwest and southwest mixed in for good measure, no significant precipitation expected.FRIDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level rising to 1600 m, light to moderate west/southwest wind, no precipitation expected.SATURDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level rising to 1800 m, light to moderate west/southwest wind, no significant precipitation expected.SUNDAY: A few clouds, freezing level approaching 2500 m, light variable wind, no precipitation expected.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday a skier remote triggered a size 2 wind slab on a northeast facing alpine slope at 2000 m with a crown 40 cm in depth. There are some great photos in this MIN of a size 2.5 wind slab that was skier triggered on a north facing slope on the Slalok/Matier Glacier.  As we enter a period that looks to be increasingly warm it's worth reminding ourselves that glide cracks are to be avoided at all costs. They're incredibly unpredictable and when they fail, they often fail big as indicated in this great MIN report.This avalanche was reported from the Duffey Lake area on Tuesday. It indicates the nature of the bond between the recent storm snow and old surfaces below may be poor. Most other recent reports from this region have been of small loose snow avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Light amounts of new snow have been redistributed by southwesterly and northerly winds, potentially creating some unusual wind slabs, including on south-facing slopes. Beneath this recent snow you may find hard wind-affected snow at higher elevations, soft and faceted snow in shaded and sheltered areas, and melt-freeze crusts on southerly slopes. The middle and lower snowpack is generally well-settled. 

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.