Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
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Highlights

The storm looks to bring 50+ mph winds today, another 0.5” of rain, and more than 5” of new snow above 2,500’. Wind slabs 2 to 3’ thick will be easy to trigger on steep wind loaded slopes. Storm slabs avalanches are likely above treeline on steep slopes where snow is falling. Below 2,500’, rain is increasing the chance of wet snow avalanches. The most conservative option today is to recreate away from steep slopes, including slopes above you that could slide, and runout zones. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Strong east winds gusting 50+ mph will continue to create wind slabs 2 to 3’ thick on any slopes exposed to the wind. Slopes protected from the wind are also capable of storm snow avalanches as anywhere from 2 to 3’ of storm snow may have fallen above 2,500’. Both of these avalanches could be easy for a human to trigger. These are dangerous avalanche conditions where the safest option would be to avoid traveling in avalanche terrain.

    Strong winds peaked across all of the forecast zones yesterday with winds on Sunburst gusting from 60 to 119 mph for most of the day. Today’s weather could see more than 5” of new snow in Turnagain Pass with 50+ mph winds to transport it. East winds are forecast to increase throughout the day creating larger wind slabs that will be easier for a human to trigger.Triggering storm slab avalanches and dry loose avalanches are also likely in mid to upper elevations where all slopes have seen large amounts of snow fall. Both wind slab and storm slab avalanches may release naturally, or by a cornice triggering an avalanche above you. These will be large enough to bury a person. 

    We are all itching to get out and ride some powder. Traveling in the backcountry today during a storm is much more challenging than on calmer days. It may be harder to see wind loaded slopes or feel stiff snow underneath you. The easiest place to trigger an avalanche will likely be on steep wind loaded slopes. The safest option today is to avoid traveling in or under avalanche terrain. If you do choose to get on steeper slopes, carefully assess the snow, and look for clues of instability such as recent avalanche activity, and shooting cracks. Travel from safe zone to safe zone and try to avoid spending time under steep slopes.

    (12/8/2024)

    Sunburst Weather station on 12/8 reading 119 mph.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet avalanches in the form of wet loose or wet slab avalanches are likely on all mid elevation slopes. That means that from the highway to treeline and possibly higher, these avalanches are a concern where rain has fallen for days on the snow. A wet avalanche occurred recently around 2000’ on Tincan’s north face near CFR ridge. On top of these hazards it also sounds like the snow at mid elevations is challenging to ride through based on this observation. Be aware of steep slopes above you as well as snow that fails underneath you creating mini wet slides when you are making a kick turns. If you are sinking up to your boots in sloppy wet snow avoiding steep slopes is the safest option.

    (12/7/2024)

    Closeup of potential wet slabs on the north side of Tincan Ridge's CFR. Seen Saturday, Dec 7 and likely occurred on the 5th or 6th. 

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Glide avalanches are everywhere, on all aspects, at all elevations, including your favorite slopes to ride. These wet and warm conditions seem to be increasing glide avalanche activity. Each day we are hearing of or seeing new glide cracks releasing into large avalanches. Try to minimize or avoid spending time under these brown cracks.

    (12/6/2024)

    Glide crack opening on the common Tincan uptrack. This slope is known to some as "Hamburger Hill."

    Photo; Daniel Krueger

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