Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on all steep, north facing slopes where triggering a large, deep, and very dangerous avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer remains possible. The danger increases with elevation and wind loaded slopes are more suspect.

An isolated or MODERATE avalanche danger also exists for smaller avalanches involving recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Recent wind slabs have formed primarily on slopes facing the north side of the compass but they may be found on all aspects above treeline.

Though the likelihood of triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche is trending downward, an avalanche of this magnitude would be un-survivable. Careful terrain choices and avoidance of steep, northerly facing terrain is the only guaranteed strategy.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    It's been a week since last Friday's storm event which produced dozens of deep, hard slab avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer of of sugary, faceted snow at the base of the snow pack. The heavy load provided a significant test for slopes that didn't avalanche, and time and warmer temperatures have aided in the healing process. Stability tests performed by myself and local observers this week indicate that an avalanche of this size would be harder to trigger now but if you did find the right spot, the result would be devastating. Likely trigger points include shallow, rocky areas, lines along slope margins, or steep convexities. With avalanches of this magnitude remaining a real possibility, careful terrain choices remain imperative and in the final analysis, venturing on to steep, north facing terrain is still a little bit like walking through a mine field.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    You may still be able to find some isolated slabs of wind drifted snow out there in the high country. Potentially unstable drifts are most likely to be found on northerly aspects but they may also exist on slopes with a west or southeasterly tilt. In some cases they may be found adjacent to bare slopes where a subtle terrain feature such as a sub-ridge or gully wall has caused deposition on the leeward side. Wind slabs are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, or hollow sound and feel. Cracking is a sign of instability. On northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added stress to older slabs on top of a buried persistent weak layer and dangerous, human triggered avalanches 3'-5' deep are possible. Continue to avoid steep, wind drifted slopes.

    Areas of a wind drifted snow on a northerly aspect from south and westerly winds. Note the rippled effect indicating recent drifting as well as overhanging cornices indicating wind direction and loading areas on leeward aspects. Chris Benson photo.

General Announcements

Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Special Announcement

Road Conditions: The dirt road to Geyser Pass Trailhead is plowed, but snow packed and slick. AWD and good tires recommended.

Grooming: Trees are cut out and packing has commenced. Look for full grooming later in the week,

Recent Activity

No new avalanches have been reported since last Friday's impressive avalanche cycle. Go here for the complete list.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 45" Wind SW 15-20 Temp 23

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

Storm Totals in Gold Basin

Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

NWS Weather Forecast

Sunny and breezy conditions are on tap today with high temps near 30 degrees. A weak disturbance on Saturday will bring clouds and a chance for light snow. Another weak system may push some moisture into our area on Tuesday but accumulating precipitaton looks meager through the end of the model runs.

Snowpack

It's been a week since last Friday's storm event which produced dozens of deep, hard slab avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow at the base of the snow pack. The heavy load provided a significant test for slopes that didn't avalanche, and time and warmer temperatures have aided in the healing process. Stability tests performed by myself and local observers this week indicate that an avalanche of this size would be harder to trigger now but if you did find the right spot, the result would be devastating. Likely trigger points include shallow, rocky areas, lines along slope margins, or steep convexities. With avalanches of this magnitude remaining a real possibility, careful terrain choices remain imperative and in the final analysis, venturing on to steep, north facing terrain is still a little bit like walking through a mine field.

Wind, sun, and warm temperatures have affected the snow surface in exposed areas but fortunately we escaped the rain experienced by our northern neighbors. Charlie Ramser was up yesterday, and he was still able to find soft, settled powder in sheltered areas. He also noted a strengthening snowpack but with a developing layer of near surface facets beneath a wind crust. Read his observation here. And for some great aerial photos of the range and how it was affected by the wind this week, check out this observation from Chris Benson.

Aerial view of Mount Peale from the south. Chris Benson photo.

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