Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The storm system is moving out today, and northwest gap winds are picking up. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely on buried weak layers 1 to 2' deep, especially where there is active wind loading. We recommend using conservative terrain choices to reduce your exposure and give our weak snowpack time to adjust to the recent load. 

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Chugach State Park - We have issued a SPECIAL AVALANCHE BULLETIN for the Chugach State Park forecast area through the National Weather Service starting today at 6 am through 6 am Thursday, January 8th. Large human-triggered avalanches are likely after the recent heavy snowfall and northwest winds expected today.

Our second Forecaster Chat of the season is tomorrow, Thursday, Jan. 8, at the Girdwood Brewery. The event is free, and the show will start at 6:00 pm. Come on down! More info here.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Northwest gap winds like we have today tend to impact Summit Lake and Seward much more than the surrounding areas. With the low-density new snow from the recent storm, it won't take much wind to form fresh wind slabs 1' deep. Keep an eye out for snow being transported by the wind onto leeward slopes. These tend to form along ridgelines and convex features. Red flags on wind-loaded slopes, like recent avalanches or shooting cracks, are clear signs that wind slabs are sensitive to human triggers. A small pocket of wind slab could cause a larger avalanche on buried weak layers deeper in the snowpack.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Recent avalanches: The most recent reported avalanche in the Summit Lake area was on Tenderfoot Ridge on December 28th. Since the latest storm started on Sunday evening, we don't have any reports of new human-triggered avalanche activity, but have received observations of large collapses in the treeline elevation band from 1000' to 2500'. 

    The low-pressure system that brought low-density snow throughout the region over the past few days is moving out today, and cold temperatures are going to set back in. The distribution of snowfall with this storm was atypical, with Anchorage being the clear winner in terms of snowfall and Girdwood and Portage being favored more than areas on the Kenai Peninsula.  Summit Lake and Snug Harbor also got more snowfall than Turnagain Pass and Seward, which is also not the typical pattern. See the table below for snowfall and water totals over the storm period. 

    Location Snowfall Water Anchorage (Indian Pass SNOTEL) 18" 1.3" Girdwood (Alyeska Mid Station) 13" 0.75" Portage (Bear Valley RWIS) 14" 0.89" Turangain Pass (Center Ridge SNOTEL) 5" 0.3" Summit Lake (Summit Creek SNOTEL) 9" 0.5" Snug Harbor (Cooper Lake SNOTEL) 9" 0.5" Seward (Grouse Creek SNOTEL) 5" 0.3"

    *Approximate snowfall totals since the latest storm started on Sunday evening (1/4/26)

    The Summit Lake area has a weak snowpack setup and is being impacted strongly by the northwest winds today. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely in wind-loaded areas.  We recommend taking a cautious approach to avalanche terrain today and giving the weak snowpack time to adjust to the recent snow and wind loading. Stick to low-angle terrain and avoid terrain traps to reduce your exposure to avalanche hazards. 

    (1/5/2026)

    Upper elevation snowpit showing new snowfall over weak facets.

    Photo: Marc Heifetz

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