Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

New snow and moderate easterly wind are creating dangerous avalanche conditions in Summit Lake today. Large natural avalanches may occur today especially above 2,500'. A person could easily trigger an avalanche up to 1.5' deep in places with windblown snow. A much larger and more dangerous avalanche could be triggered by a person anywhere above 1,000' on a layer of weak snow buried up to 3' deep. Due to the extremely weak snowpack in this area, places that are normally safe may not be safe today. Enjoy the snow today by choosing low angle or simple terrain with nothing steep above.

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CHUGACH STATE PARK: Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in Chugach State Park. Recent snow and strong easterly wind have formed fresh wind slabs over a weak, faceted snowpack. Human-triggered avalanches are likely in wind-loaded terrain, and avalanches may step down into deeper persistent weak layers, producing large and dangerous slides. See the updated outlook from Chugach State Park for more info.

Avalanche Hazard Reduction Work: There will be intermittent traffic delays Friday January 30th, 2026 on the Seward Highway for Avalanche Hazard Reduction work. From mileposts 91 to 99 on the Seward Highway, North of Girdwood and South of Bird, motorists should expect delays of up to 45-60 minutes between 09:00 AM and 1:00 PM. Updates will be posted on the 511 system.  http://511.alaska.gov/

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent avalanches: A large avalanche cycle occurred with the last major storm on January 14 to 16, with very large avalanches occurring on many of the slopes in the Summit Lake area. Some avalanches occurred on slopes that rarely slide including slopes on the east facing side of Fresno pictured here.

    The snowpack in Summit Lake is very dangerous right now and 0.6" of water (6 to 12" of new snow above 1,500') was added over the last 24 hours. The weak snow that developed in December is especially weak and unstable in this zone and it might not take as much weight as it normally would to trigger a very large avalanche. People are still observing many red flags including whumpfing (yesterday on Manitoba) and very unstable test results. A person could trigger a large avalanche today even in places that are normally safe like Fresno, Colorado, Japan Trees, and Tenderfoot.

    It is also very important today to stay out from underneath steep slopes. A very large avalanche could be triggered from below. If one of these avalanches is triggered, debris could run to valley bottoms. Even small features could be problematic, so avoid any slope that ends in a gully feature where the snow could pile up.

    (1/14/2026)

    A large avalanche on Fresno, 2800' on a SE aspect that occurred during the last storm. This is an example of an avalanche that could surprise us in places where people normally ride due to the extremely weak layer buried in the snowpack.

    Photo: Andy Moderow

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The Summit Lake SNOTEL station is at the road level at 1,340' and didn't record any snow (0.6" water in the last 24 hrs), but rainline was likely just above this elevation and there could be over 1' of new snow at the upper elevations. This, combined with moderate easterly ridgetop winds, created fresh wind slabs up to 2' deep that should be easy to trigger today. 

    There could also be places that accumulated enough new snow that a person could trigger a small Storm Slab up to 1' deep on steep slopes. With the current snowpack set up in Summit Lake described above, a small Wind or Storm Slab could easily trigger a much larger and more dangerous avalanche. 

    Wet loose: With rain falling on snow at the lower elevations the upper snowpack is becoming saturated. Look for roller balls to know you could trigger a small wet loose avalanche. 

    (1/29/2026)

    This shooting crack is from Tincan yesterday, but it's a good example of what to look for as a sign the snowpack is unstable.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

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