Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

There is a mix of wet snow, new snow, and persistent avalanche problems out there today. Summit Lake was mostly skipped by the recent precipitation, but there is a chance of finding fresh wind slabs up to 1' deep in upper elevation areas. Below 2000', wet snow avalanches are the main concern, and the potential for large wet avalanches on old weak layers exists. At upper elevations and northern aspects, buried weak layers could be a concern, especially in areas that received recent wind loading. 

WEDNESDAY AVALANCHE OUTLOOK: A break between storms and colder overnight temperatures should help stabilize the snowpack on Wednesday. You should evaluate how well the snowpack freezes overnight to determine how concerning wet snow avalanches will be. There will still be the potential to trigger larger avalanches on buried weak layers above 2000', especially on northern aspects. 

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Forecast Operations:  Our last forecast will be Thursday, April 30th, followed by our annual "Spring Tips" on May 1st. 

Hiking on trails below avalanche paths this time of year is dangerous and not recommended.  Avalanches may release into valley bottoms, covering up summer hiking trails. This includes the Byron Glacier Trail and the Trail of Blue Ice in Portage Valley and the Crow Pass Trail in Girdwood Valley. Remember that as long as there are snowy mountains above you, avalanches can come down to snow-free hiking trails.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Recent Avalanches: Yesterday, there was a small wet slab avalanche observed on John Mtn that likely occurred on Sunday. Four large slab avalanches occurred on the west side of Butch Mountain on Thursday.A large avalanche was observed on the north aspect of Tri-Tip on Monday, which propagated widely across the slope and ran towards Tenderfoot. 

    The storm system in the past 24 hours mostly missed the Summit Lake area, with no new precipitation recorded at the SNOTEL site.  However, this site can underrepresent some areas that typically get more snow, like Manitoba. So it is still worth keeping an eye out for new snow totals and potential for recently formed wind slab avalanches up to 1' deep at upper elevations.  

    Recently, there have been several large avalanches failing after wind loading events on Tri-Tip and Butch. We don't know exactly what the weak layer is for these avalanches, but it could be either large wind slabs or some kind of weak interface in the upper snowpack. 

    In addition to the recent activity, there are deeper weak layers in the Summit Lake snowpack that could cause much larger avalanches if they become reactive to the weight of a skier again. These layers were problematic early in the season and have been sitting at the base of the snowpack ever since. If you feel any collapsing or start to sink into the snow on skis or boots, this is a sign that deeper avalanches on buried weak layers are possible. 

    (4/23/2026)

    A view of several of the large avalanches that we believe all occurred on April 22 on Butch Mountain. It was interesting that there were 4 large natural avalanches on this mountain in one day and no where else that we could see.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    It has been several days since the last refreeze below 1500', and the snowpack is saturated with meltwater. In the field yesterday on Turnagain Pass, I was sinking knee to hip deep in wet snow, which is a strong sign of the potential for wet snow avalanches. On steep terrain, it will be easy to initiate a wet loose avalanche, which could gain momentum and build into a large avalanche on long slopes. 

    So far this spring, we have not seen wet slab avalanche activity. But the setup seems prime to start producing wet slabs with the combination of rain up to 1500' and warm temperatures. These avalanches are much larger and more dangerous than wet loose because they are unpredictable. If you find yourself sinking into wet snow more than ankle deep, we recommend staying off steep slopes. 

    Wet slab avalanche on John Mtn observed on 4/26/26

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