Avalanche forecast

Newberry

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a slab avalanche will be unlikely, but if you do, it will be very large and destructive. We have a few layers of weak snow that are buried. Snowpack structure and tests show these layers have the potential to cause very large avalanches. Consider avoiding slopes 30 degrees or steeper, especially on unsupported terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–3

    On Saturday, I found propagation on a facet layer that is buried  22”-31” deep, depending on elevation. Our team has been tracking this layer throughout the season, and these snow grains have been gaining strength. However, snowpack tests reveal this layer still has the potential to cause avalanches.

    In addition, forecasters have been finding surface hoar down 18” that was buried on 2/14. This layer has also shown test results that can be consistent with avalanches. Although we have not seen any recent avalanches on these layers, if you were to trigger a persistent slab, it will be very destructive.

    Sometimes we do not get many clues of instability (such as cracking or whumpfing) from persistent slabs. However, persistent slabs can be unpredictable and catch riders off guard. It seems unlikley to trigger these weak layers, but due to the weak snow grains and the large slab sitting on top, I plan to give these layers more time to heal before traveling in consequential avalanche terrain in the Paulina area.

    (2/28/2026)

    Extended column test: ECTP#26 down 22". NW aspect, 7,020ft.

    Photo: Elliott Reed

Avalanche Discussion

While traveling in the Newberry zone today, I found an ice crust 3-5cm thick on all aspects. Slopes were firm, and despite warm temperatures, the surface remained firm and icy.

New precipitation is expected to reach our mountains this evening. Light rainfall is possible up to around 7,000ft. I don't expect we will get enough rain to produce wet snow activity, but if it rains harder than forecasted, be on the lookout for wet loose avalanches.  Similiarly, the very top of Paulina Peak may see 1-2" of new snow. Significant wind slab formation will be unlikley.

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