Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

You can still trigger avalanches in pockets of wind drifted snow on Sunday. Some of these slabs could trigger easily and break widely if they fail on weak snow just above a stout crust. Don't let a surprising avalanche ruin your day, so carefully evaluate each slope and default to simple terrain out of the wind if you notice obvious signs of instability. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Minimal new weather inputs are likely helping wind slabs gain strength and become more stubborn to trigger with time. However, this may not be true if they rest over weak snow above a slick crust. In this scenario, the resulting avalanche could break wider than expected and grow large. Due to recent east winds, don't be surprised if you find these slabs all over the compass on Sunday. Look for these slabs as you change aspects, especially in areas that promote drifting, such as the downwind sides of ridges, beneath rock and cliff bands, or on the breakover of unsupported features. 

    Blowing snow should help you identify what slopes are loading up. Avoid travel on slabs that appear freshly drifted and textured, especially if you notice shooting cracks or hear whumphs. 

    (2/16/2024) Photo: Max Bednarski

    A skier triggered this avalanche on Friday on a southern aspect at 5500ft in the Teanaway area. Notice the textured surface indicating wind-transported snow. 

Avalanche Discussion

This is a benign weather pattern for the eastern mountains. We don't expect much in the form of precipitation but instead, look for a slight warming trend accompanied by a shift in wind direction back to the W/SW. 

The Wenatchee Mountains and other drainages in the southern reaches of the zone received 10-16" of recent snow. This fresh snow still doesn't have much cohesive slab structure in sheltered locations, and you'll likely be traveling right through the crust below. However, in many places, the fresh snow rests over weak, faceted grains or surface hoar associated with the Early February Crust (EFC) or a sun crust on southern aspects. Without a cohesive slab, this hasn't become a widespread problem yet. However, in areas where the wind drifts snow into stiffer slabs or the sun and gradually warming temperatures begin to consolidate the new snow, we'll likely start to see avalanche activity increase throughout the zone. 

On Friday, a group of skiers near Ingalls Peak in the Teanaway had a close call and triggered a small soft slab in wind-drifted snow. The skier was caught but fortunately was able to arrest on the bed surface as the avalanche failed. This avalanche occurred on a south aspect at 5500 ft. You can check out the full avalanche observation here. 

Earlier in the weekend, observers in the Icicle Creek area saw a few large to very large naturals in wind-loaded terrain at upper elevations. Before this last storm, two skier-triggered avalanches failed on weak, faceted snow over the EFC: A small avalanche in the Icicle Creek area and a slightly larger avalanche on Jim Hill in the Stevens Pass zone. These avalanches could be the first sign of larger and more destructive avalanches that propagate widely with additional loading or warming temperatures. On Thursday, Mission Ridge reported triggering shallow (5-8" deep) slabs that ran on the old/new interface with control work. On the same day, NWAC Forecasters traveled in the Blewett Pass and found areas with wind drifting produced shooting cracks easily when provoked. They got one collapse, and the culprit was a thin layer of faceted grains above the EFC. While extended column test results (ECTN 7) did not show a likely chance of propagation on this layer, they suspect the overlaying slab was just not cohesive enough. Check out the full observation here.

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