Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Recent snow and very strong winds have drifted snow into wind slabs near and above treeline.  You can trigger a wind slab avalanche on slopes where you find 8 or more inches of snow.  These wind slabs could be dangerous on their own but could also step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche. You can also trigger a persistent slab avalanche on deeper buried weak layers where the snowpack is shallower.  This will be found in likely trigger points on the margins of the slab and near rock outcroppings. It may not be the first or second person on the slope but just takes you to find a sweet spot where you're able to impact deeper buried weak layers.  Sticking to wind-sheltered lower-angle terrain without steep slopes above you will provide safer skiing and riding options today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Recent snow and strong wind have loaded slopes and produced slabs on top of deeper buried weak layers.   In shallow snowpacks (<1.5m) before this storm, depth hoar, the early January facet layer, and faceted crusts continued to remain weak and slow to heal.  These weak layers had been mainly lying dormant during the latest two-week dry period but could become more reactive with this latest load and slab formation.  It will most likely take you finding a shallow spot on the slope near a likely trigger point on the margins of the slab or near rock outcroppings to trigger a persistent slab avalanche or triggering a wind slab on the surface that then steps down into deeper weak layers.  These avalanches could be very large running well into the flats below and most likely not survivable.  A probe pole can be a useful tool to measure snowpack depths on the slope you plan to play on.  

     

    This is an annotated snowpit from a NNE aspect near treeline that is 140cm deep.  In places where the snowpack remains under 1.5 m deeper persistent weak layers have been slow to heal and continue to remain reactive in long column tests.  These shallow spots on the slope are also where you're more likely to impact the deeper buried weak layers. 

    (2/28/2024) Photo: Andy Bond

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and very strong winds have created wind slabs at upper elevations.  These slabs could be 2 feet thick at upper elevations, especially on east aspects above treeline. Some slopes have been stripped and scoured back to bare ground while others have been drifted in and loaded.  Identifying wind slabs right now is pretty easy, with lens-shaped slabs that appear smooth or obvious wind drifted pillows. These slabs are mainly hard and will be supportable underfoot, which can often mean that they can break in unpredictable ways oftentimes well above you. Wind slabs have formed on a variety of different surfaces from crusts to near-surface facets and facet crust combos.   Wind slab avalanches could be dangerous on their own , but could also step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche. Avoid steep slopes where you find more than 8 inches of newly drifted snow.  Wind slabs may have also formed in open and exposed areas below treeline.  

    Wind slabs were stubborn yesterday, but where I was finding them to be more reactive was when there was some form of facet layer layer, either just near-surface facets or a facet crust combo to get to collapse and propagate. 

    (2/28/2024) Photo: Andy Bond

Avalanche Discussion

A system today is staying well to our south in southern NM leaving us with another sunny and warm day up here to the north.  Temperatures this morning are in the low teens but will quickly warm into the mid and upper 30's.  It's getting to be that time of year as we look to head into March where our sun angle gets to be really intense and quickly warms up slopes.  Yesterday by mid-day southerly aspects were warming up.  We should see loose wet snow avalanches become more of a concern today, so watch for roller balls and pinwheels as these are indications that the snow surface is becoming wet.  These loose wet snow avalanches will typically start in steep terrain around sunbathed rock bands on our solar aspects and fan out as they travel down the slope.  If you notice the snow surface becoming wet, head to a shadier aspect.  It's that time of year to start bringing a scrapper and glob stopper as you transition from wet to dry snow. 

Strong winds during the Feb 7th storm stripped and scoured many slopes and loaded others. This has created pocketed areas of wind-drifted snow that are easy to identify in travels. It's hard to believe, but this wind event stripped a meter plus snowpack back to bare ground on a slope Charlie and I were skiing last week.  East aspects above treeline have seen the greatest amount of loading and will be the most suspect slopes today.  Yesterday in my travels I found these slabs to be 10 to 30 cm thick ranging from 4F to pencil hard.  These slabs were not overly reactive like we had suspected, but were able to get them to propagate on specific slopes where there were near surface facets or a facet crust combo beneath the slabs.  There was also a graupel layer present within the wind slab, but I did not find this layer to be reactive in long column tests. Surprisingly the skiing wasn't all that horrible while patching together areas of soft sastrugi making for some pleasant turns. 

Explosive control work yesterday produced mixed results with not much for results with the wind slabs. However, one result that stood out to me was in an uncompacted open and exposed terrain below treeline. This path had run earlier this year and wind loading and a more reactive slab created the right slab/weak layer combination to reawaken deeper persistent weak layers producing a size 2 avalanche that propagated 75' wide and was 2 feet plus deep putting a 6 foot debris pile on a cat track. Although not the big storm that was forecasted, the threat of triggering a persistent slab avalanche has increased with new slab formation and loading.  Below treeline, the snowpack remained relatively shallow, and weak layers have been slower to heal. At this lower elevation band, watch for steep open and exposed areas where you find wind-drifted snow. Many avalanche paths have already slid once and in some cases twice (Peace Sign).  These repeat offenders have a shallower and weaker snowpack and may struggle to handle even a little bit of loading.      

 

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