Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Highlights

Strong southerly winds and small amounts of new snow today will create fresh slabs of wind-drifted snow near treeline and above on slopes that face NW-N-NE-E. Humans can trigger shallow avalanches in recent sensitive drifts, and the danger is MODERATE. Even a small avalanche of wind-drifted snow can get out of hand quickly in complex terrain. Becoming more the exception than the rule, it is still POSSIBLE to trigger a deep hard slab avalanche failing on buried persistent weak layers. This problem exists near treeline and above on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E and the danger remains MODERATE. Very steep slopes with a shallow snowpack are the most suspect areas.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Strong to extreme southerly winds overnight had 2 inches of fluff to drift into shallow, sensitive slabs. These slabs will grow throughout the day as new snow accumulates and the wind continues to blow. Freshly deposited wind slabs will crack beneath your skis. This type of snow will also feel stiffer and more compact than non-drifted snow. Look for and avoid fresh drifts that will be prominent on the leeward side of ridgelines and terrain features and on slopes that face northwest through east.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    3

    Warm temperatures, percolating meltwater in the snowpack, and several nights with a solid refreeze have significantly decreased the likelihood for triggering an avalanche on a persistent weak layer. However, layers of cold, dry faceted snow still remain on steep, northerly aspects near treeline, and in some areas above. Shallower snowpack areas are where you are most likely to find trouble and any avalanche triggered would be deep and dangerous. You can pull out your probe to determine snowpack depth. If you are finding depths of a 180 cms or more, you are probably okay but remember that shallow trigger points exist. Likely trigger points include steep convexities, thin slab margins, and shallow rocky areas. Sticking to broad, planar slopes will help minimize your risk.

Special Announcement

Construction continues on the Loop Road Mon-Fri. It will be closed near Pack Creek from 8:30-5:30.

Geyser Pass Road: The road is melted down to the dirt.

Grooming Conditions: Grooming is done for the season.

Recent Activity

A snowboarder triggered a large and dangerous avalanche on Horse Head Bowl in the Abajo mountains Saturday. We are extremely grateful for a positive outcome and his thorough and thoughtful report.

See the complete avalanche database here.

Snow and Weather

6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 2" Season Total Snow: 123" Depth at Gold Basin: 43"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: N/A Temp: 30° F

Weather

It is 30° F under cloudy skies in Gold Basin this morning. Southerly winds overnight blew in the extreme range with gusts over 70 MPH. Temperatures will drop throughout the day as a cold front moves in, and the mercury should sit around 20° F this afternoon before crashing to the single digits tonight. Mountain snow will start to fall early this morning. Winds will back off slightly and blow out the southwest averaging 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH. We should squeeze about 3-5 inches of snow out of this storm with chances for more snow this week. A closed-low will move across the four corners region on Thursday morning resulting in snow showers with the potential for more accumulation. The pattern remains unsettled through the weekend and snow will linger through Sunday.

General Conditions

Skiing and riding may be pretty rough out there after last night's extreme winds. Accumulating snow throughout the day should help improve things, and we could have some fun dust on crust skiing by the end of the day. The two inches of snow that fell on Saturday night will be stripped from southerly aspects and deposited on northerly aspects, forming shallow wind slabs. Slabs of wind-drifted snow will continue to build today as new snow falls with windy conditions. Blowing and drifting snow is your number one avalanche problem today. Look for and avoid recent deposits of wind-drifted snow on leeward slopes. Cold dry snow remains on northerly aspects near treeline and above. Poor snowpack structure exists on these slopes. It is getting harder to trigger an avalanche down to the buried facets, but shallow snowpack areas and steep rocky, radical terrain remain suspect for triggering a deep hard slab avalanche.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Snowpack Observations

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Additional Info

Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Brett "Kowboy" Kobernick where he discusses faceted persistent weak layers and how "nobody is immune from getting killed in an avalanche."

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General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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