Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Heavy snowfall over the last few days has increased avalanche danger. Steer towards wind-sheltered, lower-angle terrain. Deep, unconsolidated snow and barely covered hazards increase the risk of collisions and immersion accidents.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The snow hasn’t let up, with a foot or more falling on each of the past two days. While new snow layers have not shown notable reactivity, there is simply too much snow to take steep terrain lightly. You are more likely to trigger an avalanche on steep slopes with active or recent wind loading, but instability is also possible in less wind-exposed terrain. 

    Use the crust found 1-3 feet beneath the surface as a benchmark to track how new snow and wind slab thickness change with elevation and aspect. Small test slopes and wind-drifted features can help assess how well the new snow layers bond. Shooting cracks and fresh avalanches are red flags that steep terrain is primed to produce avalanches. The easiest way to reduce risk is to default to lower-angle, more planar slopes.

    (3/14/2024)

    Storm slab avalanches often release at interfaces within the new snow.

    Photo: Aaron Richards

Avalanche Discussion

Snowfall should start to slack off after another 3-6" overnight into Monday morning. West Central weather stations recorded 1.0 to 1.5 inches of precipitation in the last 24 hours, falling at gradually warming temperatures. The White Chuck Tripod near Darrington showed a snow height gain of 10' before losing some of that to settlement caused by afternoon warming.  In general, you can expect to find 3-5 feet of snow at middle elevations and none to 2 feet at low elevations. 

Despite all the new snow, no avalanche observations were reported from neighboring zones. Stability test results were mixed. In West North, observers found small, reactive slabs on test slopes, while others reported more stubborn results. Slow warming through the day created upside-down snow and likely contributed to instability. Small-column tests showed generally resistant results and a stronger bond at the December 18 crust–new snow interface, while easier, more sudden results were observed at an interface 12–16 inches below the surface. No avalanches were reported as of late Sunday afternoon.

On-the-ground observations in West Central remain sparse due to shallow snow cover and access challenges from recent washouts and landslides. Be prepared to assess the actual avalanche danger for yourself as you climb into snow-covered terrain. Variations in precipitation and new snow amounts, and temperatures can result in markedly different conditions within a single forecast zone.

The weather over the past few weeks has been extraordinary, with torrential rains, extreme winds, flooding, and landslides. Many communities are dealing with damage to homes, infrastructure, and businesses, stretching resources thin. These events have limited access to the mountains for all of us. State and local resources are working diligently to reduce the worst of these impacts. We can help by being respectful of local communities, obeying road closures, and heeding ski area uphill travel policies.

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