Avalanche forecast

Provo

Issued Feb 28, 2026valid to Mar 1, 2026Utah Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on upper-elevation slopes facing west through north to east, and on mid-elevation slopes facing northwest through north to east. Avalanches may be large and destructive, breaking on a buried persistent weak layer 1 to 3+ feet deep and potentially hundreds of feet wide. These avalanches can be triggered remotely or from below.

While this unstable combination has become more stubborn over the past day or two, it remains highly dangerous and just as deadly. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully, make conservative decisions, and avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees with poor snow structure.

As temperatures rise, wet snow avalanches may become possible, increasing danger to MODERATE on lower-elevation and sun-exposed slopes. Avoid steep slopes during the warmest part of the day and watch for changing conditions.

Avalanche problems

Wind Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
2
Strong west winds, combined with dense snow from Wednesday, are creating thick, stiff slabs and large cornices along upper-elevation ridges. These slabs may be difficult to trigger, but could break above you and carry into lower-angle slopes. Look for signs of wind-drifted snow like round, pillow-shaped drifts.

Any avalanche initially triggered in the wind-drifted snow has the potential to step down, producing a much deeper and wider avalanche that fails on the persistent weak layer.
Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Likely
Size
3
The DJL (Dry January Layer) is now buried 1 to 3 feet beneath the surface and has been responsible for four avalanche fatalities, several accidents, and more than 60 reported avalanches.

Over the past few days, fewer obvious signs of instability are showing up during backcountry travel and in snowpits, suggesting the snowpack is gradually gaining strength. This can create a false sense of security and draw people into avalanche terrain. We are only a few days past the last significant loading event. While the likelihood of triggering an avalanche is slowly decreasing, the consequences remain just as high.

Recent avalanches, both large natural and human-triggered, underscore the high-consequence nature of this layer. Thinner snowpack areas are especially suspect, and avalanches can still be triggered remotely or from below. Continue to pay attention, evaluate snow and terrain carefully, and travel conservatively in the backcountry.

Video from Bo Torrey's field day in Snake Creek near Ant Knolls. See full observation HERE.
Loose Wet
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
2
Previous rain on snow and warm temperatures have created a saturated, unsupportable snowpack at mid and low elevations.

As daytime temperatures rise and the surface crust softens, wet snow avalanches may be triggered. Low- and mid-elevation north-facing aspects where persistent weak layers exist are the most concerning and should be avoided during the warmest part of the day.

Special Announcement

We are deeply saddened to report that one of the skiers involved in the Butler Basin accident on Saturday, February 21, has died from injuries sustained in the avalanche. Our deepest condolences go out to the victim’s family, friends, and everyone impacted by this tragic accident.

A new blog is posted Riding the Ski Lift With My Daughter. This piece was written to us by longtime friend and backcountry skier John Climaco.

Recent Activity

Yesterday, there were no new avalanches reported from the Provo area backcountry. Thursday, UAC Forecaster, Drew Hardesty was out and recorded several recent natural avalanches and large debris piles on Mt. Timpanogos.

Mt. Timpanogos, Ipana, Natural triggered, N aspect @ 8,400 feet, 250 feet wide, 2 feet deep. HERE.

Though the number of avalanches reported across the entire range has slowed down, we can't forget that four people have been killed in separate avalanche accidents in the past ten days. Two of which were along the Wasatch Back.

Wednesday 2/18 Ant Knolls, Wasatch Back Fatality — Snowmobiler. Final report HERE.
Thursday 2/19 Rock Garden, BCC (Brighton Backcountry) Fatality — 11-year-old skier. Preliminary report HERE.
Saturday 2/21 Butler Basin, BCC - Fatality — Backcountry skier. Preliminary report HERE.
Sunday 2/22 Caribou Basin, Wasatch Back Fatality — Snowbiker. Preliminary report HERE.

All of these accidents involved slab avalanches 2 to 3 feet thick and up to 500 feet wide, failing on weak faceted snow, our January Dry Layer (JDL). There’s another important point: in nearly all of these incidents, as well as many other close calls, the individual or party triggered the avalanche from below while in gentle terrain.

Snow and Weather

This morning, skies are mostly clear, and overnight temperatures dropped into the upper 20s °F across a few weather stations, but not all. Winds continued to blow from the W at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts in the 20 mph range along the mid-elevation ridges, and 15 to 25 mph with gusts into the 50s along the highest elevation ridges

Today, we’ll see partly sunny skies in the morning, followed by a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the low 50s °F. Moderate to strong winds will continue from the W, especially at upper elevations, with sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts into the 30 to 40 mph range through most of the day.

Outlook, a weak storm system will move in early Monday morning. Winds will start out of the southwest, then shift to the north or northwest by later Monday. Snow levels will begin pretty high, around 9000 feet, but will slowly drop to about 6500 feet by Tuesday as colder air moves in. This does not look like a super strong storm, but there is a bit of moisture with it. Could see up to 10 inches of new snow.

Additional Info

I'll leave you with a final quote from Mark White's recently observation from the Monitors: "You’re not going to remotely trigger a slide at this point in time due to the thickness of the slab, but if you’re riding the face and hit a thin spot in the slab, you better have your life insurance paid off because it’s most likely going to be an unsurvivable avalanche."

General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures