Avalanche forecast

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous and complex avalanche conditions exist. Triggering 1-3 foot thick avalanches is likely today. Large natural avalanches are possible. Avalanches will be easier to trigger in terrain affected by the wind, but are possible in sheltered terrain as well. Avalanches can be triggered from long distances above, below, and to the sides of steeper slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    8-12" of snow (0.5-0.8" of SWE) fell in this zone in the last 24 hours. Wind speeds increased significantly overnight, blowing at moderate to strong speeds out of the S-SW. As I write this, large wind slabs are building (and potentially failing naturally) in terrain exposed to the wind. These slabs will be largest and thickest at upper elevations, but you'll also find wind slabs in exposed lower and middle elevation terrain. The foothills around Fairfield and the steep slopes at the mouths of drainages that feed the Big Wood River are common locations to find these lower elevation slides. Be on the lookout for wind slabs from the valley bottom to the mountain tops and expect them to be easy to trigger. 

    Most wind slabs are building on top of persistent weak layers in the snowpack (read Problem #2 below). Because of this, the wind slabs you encounter today may behave more like persistent slabs than "simple" wind slabs. Fresh slabs will be reactive to your weight and may produce avalanches that break wider and deeper than you might expect. Triggering these avalanches remotely (from a distance above, below, or to the sides of steeper slopes) is a real possibility.

    Friday, professionals reported triggering large avalanches and seeing large natural avalanches in the Soldier Mountains (photo at right/above). These slides failed in wind-loaded terrain and very likely involved one of the layers of weak snow described below. The same day, skiers in the out-of-bounds terrain adjacent to Bald Mountain triggered a 40-foot wide avalanche that put debris on the bike path. Also Friday, skiers in Indian Creek remotely triggered a large avalanche from 100 feet away (report). On Wednesday, several natural and triggered avalanches occurred on  Della Mtn near Hailey (report). Multiple large avalanches buried Warm Springs Rd with large amounts of debris (photo) the same day. All of these avalanches occurred on wind-loaded slopes.

    (3/3/2023) This large natural avalanche was observed on Peak 2 in the Soldier Mountains.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2

    Layers of weak snow in the upper snowpack can produce 1-3' thick slab avalanches. Expect to find weak, sugary facets on shaded slopes and crust+facet sandwiches on slopes that face the sun. You're most likely to trigger a slide involving these layers in areas where the wind has built a slab on top. However, enough snow has fallen here that avalanches failing in terrain sheltered from the wind are a very real possibility.

    The nature of these layers changes from slope to slope, it's safe to assume that they exist on most slopes. Persistent weak layers produce avalanches that fail in unpredictable ways. They can break significantly wider and deeper than you might expect, producing much larger avalanches. Avalanches failing on persistent weak layers can be triggered from gentle terrain above, below, or to the sides of steep slopes, a process known as remote triggering.

    The best management strategy for this persistent slab problem is terrain management. Today I recommend you choose simple, conservative terrain to play in. Pay close attention to the terrain around you and above you, and spend some time contemplating the potential outcomes of being caught in an avalanche in the terrain you are in. Cliffs, trees, and terrain traps magnify the consequence of even small slides.

    (3/1/2023) This large avalanche released above the E Fork of the Big Wood on a NW aspect at 8,600'. The slab initiated in wind-loaded terrain and appears to have failed on a weak layer buried by snowfall since Sunday (2/26).

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche conditions are both dangerous and complex. This is a bad combination. Periods of drought and snowfall in January and early February built a variety of weak layers. A series of storms beginning in mid-February have gradually buried these weak layers underneath an increasingly dense slab of snow. The ongoing slew of avalanche activity is clear evidence that this combination of slab+weak layer has the potential to generate very large, destructive avalanches.

Everything you just read was true yesterday, before last night's storm. This quick-hitting, intense feature is exiting our area this morning, but don't let the fact that this storm took place while you were asleep lull you into complacency. It just dumped snow for 6-8 hours, accompanied by honking winds out of the SW-S-SE. Yesterday was dangerous and things only got worse. I expect that large natural avalanches took place overnight. 

This morning's sunshine will quickly affect the new snow, generating a number of small, loose snow avalanches. Though small, these slides can be effective triggers for wind slabs or deeper weak layers. The sun will also help the new snow consolidate into a more cohesive slab. While rare, this process can increase the likelihood of encountering slides. In the low elevation terrain of this zone, the newly melted snow can push water into the weak, older snow, which can result in deeper, gouging wet loose avalanches. Today's cold temps and limited sunshine should prevent this from becoming a widespread problem. 

When conditions are dangerous and complex the best solution is a simple one. Today is a good day to dial back your ambitions and choose some conservative terrain to play in. With widespread persistent weak layers in the snowpack and a meaty slab sitting on top of them, this means paying close attention to the terrain above you as well. Large avalanches can be triggered from long distances away from steeper slopes, and the potential for large natural avalanches lingers today. 

Skiing and riding conditions are excellent in low-angle terrain right now. Enjoy the gift of new snow while respecting the hazards that the mountains are presenting. Make returning home safely to family and friends your priority today.

You can catch up on what happened this past week in Ethan's latest Weekend Update.

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