Avalanche forecast

East Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Expect increasing danger due to a warm subtropical surge headed this way. Slab avalanches may become easier to trigger as snow accumulates rapidly and temperatures rise later in the day. You could trigger slides up to 2ft deep, or deeper in wind drifted areas that run on a variety of crust/facet combinations. Keep the terrain selection to lower angled slopes, and give large steep ones a wide berth.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The incoming storm comes in heavy when it does, so new snow may accumulate rapidly. It'll be heavier and more dense than the previous storm snow.

    Near and west of Washington Pass, you'll find deeper recent storm accumulations. Further east and at lower elevations, you'll find less snow. In these areas that held little or no snow prior to the weekends storm, avalanches may be more stubborn.

    Slides could  break in surprising ways if they fail on buried surface hoar and/or faceted snow. In many areas an old crust is also present. Mid and upper elevation basins hold potential to trigger slides from below, or some distance away from steep slopes. Mid elevation slopes with mid 30 degree angles could also be sneaky and can catch experienced travelers off guard. Look for signs of instability like shooting cracks, whumphing collapses, and recent natural or triggered avalanches. These are bullseye clues to instability. You can also use test slopes and snowpack tests to check for instabilities. If there's any question, the best bet is to steer clear of steep slopes. 

    (12/2/2023)

    A remotely triggered avalanche in adjacent West North zone on a NW aspect at 4800ft. The crown was 50-100cm deep. It ran at the new/old interface, on facets. SS-ASr-R2-D2-I

    Photo: Zack McGill- Cascade Mtn Ascents

Avalanche Discussion

Storm totals are up to about 1.75" of water equivalent in about 26" of new snow at Washington Pass. Temperatures nudged upwards on Sunday, but have remained below freezing for now, and they might just hold in there until the end of the day on Monday. However, with a powerful atmospheric river knocking at our door, it'll be best to play it by ear and expect deteriorating weather and conditions as the day progresses. By the time Tuesday rolls around, we could be looking at another couple feet of snow, and rain to around 6,500ft. This system will probably bring a natural avalanche cycle to many elevations of the zone. Needless to say, if you do head out on Monday, make sure to get back safely as it would be a very stormy night out.

It's still early season, and our confidence in the avalanche forecast is low. Approach mountain travel with caution and be ready to make your own assessments. Snow cover is still shallow in many places. Hitting buried rocks, stumps, and creeks may be your most significant hazard of the day.

There are many great observations from the weekend to check out on our obs page. You can also add to the forecast! Please let us know what you see in the mountains by submitting an observation.

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