Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

New snow and wind will add to the complexities of our persistent slab problem that can be found on northerly through east aspects near and above treeline.  Avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees where you find obvious wind drifted pillows or smooth stiffened snow that may feel hollow that rest on top of weak faceted snow below.  These persistent slab avalanches could be upwards of 3 feet deep and break wider across the slope than you'd expect. Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses and adjust your travel accordingly. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully, identifying slopes of concern. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and moderate winds will continue to thicken and build slabs on top of weak faceted layers that formed during the January dry period.  These mid-pack facet layers can be found anywhere in the top 3 feet of the snowpack and will need time to adjust to this latest round of snow.  Slopes, where you find wind drifted snow and stiffer slabs, will be more susceptible to propagating widely across the slope.  These avalanches could fail on weak layers 3 to 4 feet deep and be big enough to injure or bury you.  

    Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses. Take the time to dig down into the snowpack to assess if the slope you plan to play on has this slab weak layer combination. 

Avalanche Discussion

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Yesterday's storm brought 4 - 7" of snow to our mountains with about .3 to .5 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE).  W/ NW winds have been in the 5 - 15 mph range with gusts in the upper 20's that was easily transporting snow at upper elevations on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain.  Today will bring a return of the sun with temperatures climbing from the single digits this morning into the 20's and low 30's.

The January dry period created a substantial widespread faceted weak layer that formed around crusts or in northerly wind-sheltered terrain consisting of 20 cm of near-surface facets that got buried by the 2 to 3-foot storm that hit our mountains in early February.  This first storm did not produce a widespread avalanche cycle, as most of the natural avalanches observed were long-running loose snow slides in the low density that fell. Another couple of weeks of light dustings and warm sunny days and cold clear nights have created another layer of weak faceted snow that sits beneath this latest round of snow helping to add to the complexities of our persistent slab problem.    The depth and distribution will help determine the size of a persistent slab avalanche but a smaller surface slab has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.

With warming temperatures and the sun making its appearance, we could see small loose snow sluffs in steep terrain, especially around rock bands that are directly in the sun.  These types of avalanches will be small could entrain enough snow to take you off your feet as it moves down the slope, which could be problematic in consequential terrain above cliffs or terrain traps. 

The avalanche danger below treeline is low, but that doesn't mean no avalanche danger exists. Steep open wind-exposed slopes on northerly aspects have the potential to produce small persistent slab avalanches on isolated slopes.  Bull of the Woods and Long canyon zones are where we are finding more instabilities below treeline on northerly aspects. 

Wind sheltered lower angle terrain will provide the safest skiing and riding options today. 

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