Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Enjoy another relatively mellow day to ring in the new year! At upper elevations, you might still be able to trigger an avalanche in lingering pockets of wind-drifted snow. Steep cliffy terrain, confined rock features, and unsupported slopes are likely places to find this lingering problem. Loose avalanches might also occur with afternoon sunshine warming the slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    After another mellow day with light winds and cold temperatures, lingering wind slabs are likely becoming difficult to trigger. However, caution is warranted in very steep terrain where even a small avalanche could carry high consequences.  Before committing to more aggressive slopes, use small, less consequential features to see how the wind-affected snow reacts. Visual clues, such as cornice formations and textured surfaces, can help identify wind-loaded terrain.  Cracking or small slabs of snow breaking loose on test slopes indicate you could trigger an avalanche.

    (12/30/2024)

    Example of cracking in wind drifted snow.

    Photo: Adam Butterfield

Avalanche Discussion

Happy New Year! Expect another mellow day with light winds and a chance for a dusting of fresh snow before the skies clear in the afternoon. Low temperatures hit the single digits on Tuesday, and another chilly night will ring in the new year. Expect weakening snow surfaces and the potential for small, loose dry avalanches to run with slight warming in the afternoon sun. While loose dry avalanches are more predictable than slab avalanches, be aware of where you are in relation to your backcountry partners and avoid the runout of your own sluff. 

Most reports are of minimal signs of instability in the Washington Pass zone, with small, isolated wind slabs being the primary concern. But over the weekend, a few notable observations of deeper instabilities occurred. A skier triggered an avalanche near Cutthroat Lake on a southerly, unsupported slope at upper elevations, not far from the ridgetop. This slide broke ~70cm deep on what we expect is the Solstice Crust. On Delancey Ridge, an observer reported signs of instability at lower to middle elevations on a southeast aspect. They reported a collapse at 4,800ft and then sudden results in multiple compression tests ~70cm below the surface on the Solstice Crust at 5,300-5,680ft. The height of the snow there was 168cm.

Snow totals throughout this week are between 2-4 feet above 4000ft. Below that, there has been significantly less accumulation, and the snowpack is moist from warm temperatures and light rain. Despite the recent warm temperatures, there's decent coverage at lower elevations and in the eastern mountains. On Thursday and Friday, observers in the Twisp River drainage found a relatively strong snowpack, though still shallower than at the Cascade crest. There was 70-100cm of snow on the ground near 3,000ft, and depths increased with elevation. In the foothills and eastern portion of the zone, you may find more weak layers than at the Cascade crest. Pay attention to red flag signs of instability, such as whumping collapses, and consider digging down to identify potential weak layers. The Loup Loup area has a relatively robust snowpack compared to many years, though still shallow compared to further west. 

You can contribute to the avalanche forecast. Please let us know what you see in the mountains by submitting an observation. 

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