Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

The peak of the storm and natural avalanche activity has likely passed. That doesn't mean we're all wrapped up and ready to return to normal. Stormy weather will maintain dangerous avalanche conditions, so consider avoiding avalanche terrain until the snowpack has had time to adjust to this liquid shock.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    There is a lot of water in our snowpack right now, and rain will continue to add more. Wet avalanches are notoriously difficult to predict and can even occur long after the rain has stopped. You could encounter various wet problems in the mountains, including loose, slab, glide, and we'll even throw in cornice. Just because a slope has already slid in the past few days doesn't mean it can't again. Although the period for widespread natural activity may be over, these slides can still occur naturally without warning. In some instances, they may grow very large and run toward valley bottoms or openings in the trees - especially if water has recently reached our persistent weak layers. No matter the size or the timing, your best bet is to avoid avalanche terrain (anywhere a slide can start, run, or stop) for a few more days until the rain ends and our snowpack adjusts.

    (2/22/2025)

    A widely breaking slab avalanche on Coal Creek ridge near White Pass. This failed due to rain on Friday night. [E 5500']

    Photo: Remy Aucoin

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The winds are going to be ripping during these subsequent storm waves! The question mark becomes - how much snow is available for transport? With decreasing freezing levels, there should be enough new snow that these fierce winds may form shallow slabs on leeward slopes. If you journey to snowier elevations, look for wind slabs near ridgelines, the base of cliffs, or convex features. They should be pretty easy to spot. They'll be the large piles of new white snow. Once you spot them, steer around them so you don't trigger a small slide.

    (2/21/2025)

    Shallow avalanches that failed during a significant wind storm on 2/19. Similarly sized slabs could form on Monday.

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

The main atmospheric river event has ended, but we're not out of the storm track. A series of fast-hitting wet storms will roll through the West South, continuing to deliver rain down low, but hopefully a return to snow at higher elevations. Above the rain/snow line, significant winds, decreasing freezing levels, and snowfall should help stabilize our saturated snowpack from the top down. But don't write off those wet problems quite yet. On the volcanoes, be especially leery of large slides running from far above you and reaching lower elevations. They could be more likely in the southern volcanoes, where it will be warmer than areas further north in the zone - resulting in rain at higher elevations.

Due to the ferocity of the storm, observations from the main rain event are a bit limited. We heard of widespread wet avalanche activity in the Paradise and Crystal areas. Most reported slides were loose. With so much uncertainty about what has happened, how much water is still in the snowpack, and how it will react to more load over these next few storms, you should continue to be very cautious in the mountains. Consider not going at all or being very stringent with your terrain selection.   

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