Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You may be able to trigger small avalanches in wind-drifted snow near ridgelines at upper elevations. Even small avalanches can have high consequences in very steep, rocky terrain. If you find pillowlike drifts of snow, it may be best to choose lower angle routes.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Snowfall will continue to trickle in with moderate winds, building fresh shallow wind slabs on lee aspects. Newly formed wind slabs will most likely be near ridgelines in alpine terrain. While older wind slabs formed on Friday/Saturday are possibly more stubborn to trigger, new snow may cover textured surfaces, making them harder to identify. These older slabs could be located further downslope or in unusual places due to the extreme winds during the storm. The expected size of these avalanches is small, but even these small avalanches can have significant consequences in extreme terrain. With more snow likely to accumulate near the Crest, wind slabs may be larger as you approach the West South and East South zone border. 

    Use visual clues to identify wind-affected snow, such as actively blowing snow, textured surfaces, cornices, or drifts around rocks and trees. You can also use quick hand pits to dig down and identify wind stiffened snow over softer snow. If you see signs of instability such as shooting cracks or collapsing, stick to lower angle slopes or wind-sheltered terrain.Rough surfaces and a thin snowpack limit avalanche hazard at lower elevations throughout the zone.

    (1/9/2022) Example of small wind slabs in steep, consequential terrain. Photo: Katie Warren

Avalanche Discussion

While the forecast indicates a mostly cloudy day with snow showers, intermittent sun breaks can rapidly warm the recent snow, and wet loose avalanche conditions can quickly develop. Consider moving to lower angle or shadier slopes if you see rollerballs, snow shedding off rocks and trees, or the snow feels wet and heavy.Springtime weather in the mountains is dynamic, challenging to predict, and snow conditions can change rapidly. If you are out adventuring during the long days, keep your senses tuned into the snow and look for signs of deteriorating snow stability. Any rapidly changing conditions such as the direct sun on dry snow, recent avalanches, or active wind loading are all signs of changing snowpack conditions that may indicate avalanches are possible. Dynamic spring weather and more significant diurnal temperature fluctuations create more uncertainty about what avalanche problems you may encounter during the day. If you observe weather or snowpack conditions you did not anticipate, it is best to simplify your terrain selection and choose lower angle slopes.Access into areas of the East South with a consistent snowpack is becoming increasingly challenging, and therefore direct observations from the zone are limited. However, nearly 1-2ft of snow fell early last week on the Early April Crust. This snow was then baked by midweek temperatures that soared into the 50s (F) and the intense spring sun, forming a new crust when temperatures cooled. NWAC forecast staff found 7-8inches of fresh snow over this crust and wind slabs up to a foot deep in the neighboring West South zone, near White Pass. 

Even with a few inches of fresh snow, you can expect challenging travel conditions on an icy crust that may or may not be supportable. A shallow, patchy snowpack exists in the southern and eastern areas of the zone, even on shaded north aspects. Some southern slopes are snow-free up to 5700ft. Use extra caution in these lower elevations where obstacles may be lurking just under the new snow, and creek holes may be drifted over or hidden.

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