Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Most slopes have generally safe avalanche conditions as a couple of colder nights have locked up the upper portions of the snowpack into robust melt-freeze crusts, making it difficult to trigger an avalanche. Above treeline, mainly on north facing terrain, it's possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche. These avalanches would be stubborn to trigger, but may take you finding the sweet spot on the margin of the slab or near rock outcroppings.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    On northerly aspects at higher elevations, faceted crusts and depth hoar lurk beneath cohesive slabs that formed during the month of March.  These weak layers continue to remain shallow (< 1m down) and could lead to a persistent slab avalanche in places where they've remained cold and dry, and you're able to impact them.  

    In general, obvious signs of instability like cracking and collapsing may not be present, so take the time to dig a snow pit and assess if this strong over weak snowpack structure exists.  Triggering a persistent slab avalanche has the potential to take with it most of the season's snowpack and could be large enough to injure or bury you.  

    This large natural avalanche from March 18th is an example of the type of persistent slab avalanches you could trigger at upper elevations on northerly and east aspects.

    (3/26/2025) Photo: Andy Bond

Avalanche Discussion

A couple of nights of solid refreezes and cooler temperatures during the day should put our wet snow avalanche concerns at bay until the next warm-up. But last week's warm temperatures did a number on our overall snowpack and coverage in the mountains. Trailheads are melted out to bare ground and rock, making travel difficult, and overall skiing and riding conditions aren't the greatest with robust melt-freeze crusts. Most of the current snow is found above 11,000' on north, northeast and east aspects. 

Generally safe avalanche conditions exist on most slopes, as the recent colder temperatures have locked up the upper portions of the snowpack into melt-freeze crusts.  You still may find cold snow in isolated areas on steep north facing slopes that may be a concern. Above treeline terrain, we had less of a warm-up, and you can still trigger a persistent slab avalanche of faceted crusts and depth hoar near the ground where March storms and several strong wind events have built slabs on top these weak layers.  

Even though it's felt like spring over the last several weeks, there's potential for a significant storm next weekend as a deep low cuts off from the Jetstream. There are still a lot of details to be sorted, with overall track, timing and dynamics with this system, but it hopefully will bring some much-needed moisture to our mountains as we head into fire season.   

Today will be the last scheduled avalanche forecast for the season, but we will update the forecast if conditions warrant through the month of April for bigger storms. 

Regions covered