Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Heavy snowfall and wind are creating very dangerous avalanche conditions today as freshly formed slabs easily overwhelm the very weak facets and depth hoar all throughout our snowpack that formed during recent extended droughts.  It will be easy to trigger slopes with this setup today, and it's also likely for many slopes to release naturally.  Avoid being on or connected to terrain greater than 30 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    7-9 inches of snow and about 0.75" of SWE have fallen since yesterday around noon.  Ongoing heavy snowfall and moderate windspeeds today will continue to build out slabs on top of our widespread persistent weak layers.  In total, we'll be adding over 1.5" SWE to the snowpack in the form of slabs several feet deep.  This will make it easy to tip the scales and cause avalanches breaking deep within the extremely weak facets and depth hoar from early December and November.  With a storm this big falling on top of our current snowpack, you should expect to see some naturals and be capable of triggering very large avalanches that may not be survivable if you end up caught.

    Loud audible whumpfs or collapses and shooting cracks are indications you've found this dangerous setup.  These types of conditions lend themselves to remote triggering, so avoid being beneath steep slopes above as it'll be possible to trigger avalanches from a long distance away.  

    A persistent slab avalanche from our last storm cycle, breaking on the early December drought facets.  This weak layer will be lingering in the upper 1-1.5 meters of the snowpack during the current storm and is expected to lead to some very large avalanches  throughout this cycle.

    (1/9/2026) Photo: Andy Bond

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Snowfall began yesterday and ramped up early this morning to over an inch-per-hour rates while the winds have been sustained in the 10-15mph range.  This weather pattern will build out storm slabs well over a foot deep at all aspects and elevations today, and these slabs will be reactive pretty much everywhere that held snow prior to this storm (i.e. everywhere but the previously bare Southern aspects).  The slabs are forming on top of weak near-surface facets or thin crusts with facets just below, so they will be very sensitive to human travel and in many cases may slide naturally.  Expect storm slabs to grow in size with elevation, where increased wind exposure builds thicker slabs.  Storm slabs are dangerous in their own right but in our current situation can also easily step down into deeper weak layers, creating a one-two punch and producing larger more destructive avalanches. 

    On steeper more sheltered slopes where you're not finding a more cohesive slab, it'll be easy to start a loose snow avalanches in the new snow that can run long distances as they entrain more snow and gouge into the facets below.

    A natural storm slab avalanche from January 30th 2025.  We may see a lot of slopes like this release naturally throughout the course of this storm.

    Photo: Charlie Harrison

Avalanche Discussion

A closed low off the Baja peninsula has set up remarkably well for a bigtime return of winter in Northern New Mexico!  Snowfall began around noon yesterday and we saw a few inches in the mountains throughout the afternoon, but the moisture tap really turned on overnight and since about 3am we've been seeing over an inch-per-hour snowfall rates.  We're already at 7-9" and 0.75" SWE so far, and current forecasts and model runs are suggeting about another foot with at least as much liquid water by the time the storm clears out late this evening, putting us at nearly 2 feet of snow and over 1.5" SWE.  This turnout is quite fantastic for our seasonal precipitation and is going to help us turn this challenging season around, however it's also forcing up the avalanche danger to High, as all of this new snow is falling on top of a friteningly weak snowpack.

Our weak layers reach all the way down to about 9500' and consist of well-developed near surface facets in the upper portions of snowpack plus large facets and depth hoar closer to the ground.  In many places, a very faint melt-freeze crust from warm wet weather around Christmas delineates these two regions of the snowpack (see video), and today we are very concerned about the slabs that are forming on top of all this weak snow.  The winds have been and will remain sustained throughout the remainder of the storm, efficiently transporting snow and helping build out reactive slabs several feet thick that will be capable of propagating in multiple places.  The slabs can and will easily fail at the old snow interface, where lots of near surface facets developed over a two-week high pressure period.  And on top of that, we are most worried about the slabs failing deeper in the snowpack on the December drought facets.  This snow has had nearly 60 days to facet in an overall shallow snowpack on Northerly and East aspects in particular, and is exceptionally weak.  Avalanches triggered on this persistent weak layer could end up being very large and destructive, potentially covering entire paths and running long distances.  Smaller storm slabs and loose snow sluffs will act as fantastic triggers for this deeper instability, but we're also worried about the possibility of remote triggering with this weak layer being so widespread in our snowpack.  All of this adds up to some very simple advice for you: avoid being on or near avalanche terrain today while the storm runs it's course.

 

 

We expect to see a multitude of natural avalanches in our backcoutry with this storm.  We have an avalanche warning in effect for the region until tomorrow morning as peak instability will likely occur at some point today during the heavy snowfall.  I would expect the initial cycle to begin as loose sluffs or small storm slabs releasing above or near start zones at upper elevations.  As the storm progresses, some of these naturals will likely step down into the early season facets leading to some very destructive slides.  With this kind of avalanche activity, please make and stick to a very conservative plan if you're headed out there.  You should be getting lots of feedback from the snowpack in the form of widespread whumpfing and collapsing, but even if you aren't you should stick to low-angle slopes.  Below treeline area are where you'll find the most visibility and a less acute hazard, but these areas are far from safe.  You need to be aware of what's above you at all times and be extra wary of micro-terrain features like steeper rollovers, gullies, or other small terrain traps.  This snowstorm hearkens back to our Valentines Day storm last season, where we saw widespread cracking and collapsing in the mountains for well over a week after the storm passed.  This current storm is expected to drop more weight and a greater volume of low-density transportable snow, and the snowpack it's landing on has started to look frighteningly similar to last year's.  This is not a setup to be trusted, so please keep yourself safe out there and follow extremely cautious routes in the backcountry today.

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