This morning, the avalanche danger is LOW. The avalanche danger may rise to MODERATE through the day if the high end of storm totals materialize. As storm snow accumulates and SW wind drifts snow, expect to trigger shallow soft slabs near exposed ridges.
Although unlikely, the structure remains to trigger a 1-2 foot thick hard slab avalanche that breaks on a persistent weak layer near the ground.
A slick rain crust is creating hazardous slide-for-life conditions. Exercise extra caution on steep, exposed terrain where self-arrest would be difficult.
By late day, accumulating snow and moderate SW wind could build shallow soft slabs near exposed ridges. While these surface avalanches will likely be small, they could step down into the deeper, more dangerous hard slab problem (1-2 feet deep) on upper elevation W-N-E slopes.
The Christmas Eve Rain Crust (CERC) is creating a tricky, low-probability but high-consequence scenario. Crust thickness is a critical variable. On most mid-elevation slopes, the crust is several inches thick, effectively 'protecting' the weak layer and making triggering unlikely. We are most concerned with slopes where less rain fell, and the crust is thinner.
Recent avalanche activity in the Central Wasatch has pointed towards steep, rocky, high-elevation terrain where the crust is thinner, and it remains possible to trigger a hard slab that breaks 1 to 2 feet deep. While these types of avalanches have not been reported from the Northern Wasatch, as we move into a storm period, it's a good idea to start to build in margin and avoid terrain with these kinds of characteristics.
None.
Under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures at high elevations have cooled into the 30s °F, down from yesterday's highs in the 50s. The wind is blowing out of the SW and is currently 10–20 mph with gusts into the 30s this morning on Mount Ogden.
Snowfall begins early this morning with snow levels starting around 7,000 feet before quickly rising to 8,500 feet by late morning and remaining there through the day. The wind will remain out of the SW, blowing 15–25 mph with gusts in the 30s and 40s along upper elevation ridges. By early evening, expect 2 to 6 inches of dense, heavy snow above 8,000 feet.
After a break in precipitation this evening, a cold front moves in tonight. This brings another round of moisture, snow levels drop to near 7000 feet, and snow densities decrease.
Matt Barry braved the thin conditions to head up the Cutler Ridge on Monday, and his excellent report can be found HERE.
Derek DeBruin submitted an excellent observation from western side Ben Lomond from this past Saturday.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
