Avalanche forecast

Bitterroot

West Central Montana Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Generally stable avalanche conditions exist. Even at low danger, small avalanches in isolated or extreme terrain are possible.

Take the time to assess the slope you plan to ski or ride for wet unsupportable snow, or dig and look for a slab with weak snow beneath it. If you find these, avoid avalanches by moving elsewhere or sticking to low angle slopes under 30 degrees. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Today's temperatures will likely be warmer than Fridays, with another day of clear sunny skies. Overnight, the clear sky, moderate wind, and cool temperatures should freeze yesterday's wet snow into a supportable crust. With it being mid January, sun angles are still low, and the sun doesn't have the warming strength it does in the spring. As a result, we don't anticipate the snow turning into widespread wet or unsupportable snow today. 

    Wet snow avalanches will be possible on sunny slopes, especially around rock bands or in extreme terrain. If you find yourself sinking into wet or unsupportable snow, it is time to move to non solar slopes to find dry snow and avoid avalanches.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Triggering a larger persistent slab avalanche has become unlikely. Isolated areas at upper elevation still have poor snowpack structure with faceted snow beneath a crust or buried facets 1-1.5 feet deep. We have not seen avalanches on these layers in weeks, but still see intermittent propagation in snowpit tests. 

    You are unlikely to see cracking or collapsing before triggering an avalanche on these layers. To identify the problem, dig in the snow and look for a slab (strong snow) above the facets (weak or sugary snow). If you find this, the best way to avoid the avalanche problem is with slope angle. Slopes under 30 degrees are very unlikely to avalanche on these layers.

Avalanche Discussion

We are entrenched in a pattern of high pressure for the foreseeable future. Clear skies in the mountains and valley inversions down low will stick around through the weekend. 

Low danger is not no danger. Even at low avalanche danger, you need to be on the lookout for red flags or signs of instability and take the time to assess the slope you plan to ski or ride. Always use safe travel practices like riding one at a time and being aware where other riders are. Even a small avalanche can have serious consequences if you are stepping out into extreme terrain like couloirs or large exposed faces. 

With the sun and warm temperatures, we may see natural cornice failures and small slab avalanches beneath them. Do not spend unnecessary time underneath cornices during the heat of the day. 

Glide cracks have opened up on isolated slopes throughout the region. Glide avalanches are very difficult to forecast or understand due to their unpredictability. The time between a crack opening up and the avalanche failing can vary from minutes to months. Avoidance is the answer. If you see open glide cracks, do not travel underneath them. 

Avalanche education is a lifelong journey built on developing sound judgment, gaining experience, and applying repeatable decision-making systems in the backcountry. Our American Avalanche Association (A3) recognized Level 1, Rescue, and Level 2 courses are offered throughout the winter and help you travel smarter in avalanche terrain. Explore current courses and registration on the Education page. 

Thank you for all of the great observations recently. They help us create better forecasts, and we truly appreciate them. Please keep submitting them! 

Ski and ride safe!

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