Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate at all elevations.  There is a chance that a person could trigger an avalanche  1-2 feet deep within the recent storm snow. Wind-affected snow near the top of Thomson Pass may have increased sensitivity to human triggers.  Deeper persistent slab avalanches are also becoming a concern in areas where buried windslab overlies weak faceted snow. Natural avalanches are unlikely.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    We are currently experiencing significant spatial variability in snowpack and avalanche problems. One common theme is the buried weak/faceted snow that has been recently observed in all locations.  Cold, dry, and windy conditions during December left a weak, faceted snowpack throughout the region.  For the last several weeks, there has been a limited possibility for avalanche activity associated with this weak snow due to a lack of cohesive slab on top of it; however,  this is beginning to change. Some areas throughout the pass now have 2 feet of dry storm snow or windslab, loading the weak faceted snow below. This has recently been causing widespread collapse in some of our observed areas. Large interconnected slopes over 32 degrees with deep storm snow or thick windslabs may be able to produce destructive human-triggered avalanches, especially as snow loads increase in the near future. Pay attention to how the recent snow has loaded the areas you travel in today and use protocols to avoid exposure to suspect slopes. 

    Many areas have over a meter of faceted snow at the base of the snowpack. This problem will likely stick around for a while until we get a wet heavy snowfall to crush it. 

    Wind Slab: Recently formed windslabs near the summit of Thompson Pass may be sensitive to Human Triggers today. Significant windslab formation is expected to be limited to the area adjacent to the pass summit, with less wind effect to the North.

    Storm slab: In non-wind-affected areas, there is little cohesion within the dry storm snow; however, a few density changes within new snow have been producing failure. Expect the possibility of triggering small soft slab avalanches on isolated steep terrain

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  None

Forecast Discussion:  

So far this winter, we have had minimal formation of slab layers that could produce avalanches. With our current transition into stormy weather, we are expecting the most significant loading of the season in the near future. This new snow will be great for coverage, but it will be falling on a snowpack with significant faceting as well as aditional burried weak layers, including rain crusts (below 3500 feet) and slick slabby surfaces. Looking forward, it is becoming increasingly likely that these weak layers will receive significant loading in the near future. Stay tuned for updates, as avalanche likelihood will probably increase over the next week. If you haven't been checking the forecast regularly, this is a good time to start, as we head into a more active period with the potential for rapidly changing conditions.

 

Additional Details:  Be aware that the new snow is masking what was bare ground last week in some areas.  Large expanses of bare ground exist near Thompson Pass in popular terrain such as Moonlight, Loveland, Oddessey, and Catcher's Mitt.  Use caution in all terrain above 3000' to avoid hitting rocks.

There is no field data from the Maritime zone due to low snow coverage and thick brush restricting access.  Check out the season summary tab for more information on the development of the snowpack.

 

Regions covered