Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The snowpack remains wet and weak from our recent storm. While it may be hard to trigger avalanches in this punchy snow, if one starts, it will likely grow large and possibly deadly. Be leery of any steep open slope that isn’t frozen solid.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Even though the rain stopped and temperatures are starting to cool, the upper snowpack remains wet and weak. Several feet of wet punchy snow sits on the surface. It may be difficult to trigger an avalanche in this type of snow, but if one starts, lookout. It could entrain significant amounts of snow, grow large, and even become destructive. These aren’t our normal little loose wet slides. If one catches you, it could easily kill you. Stay off of large steep slopes where you find the snow surface is still wet and deep. 

    As water continues to work its way through the snowpack, you may see crevasse-like cracks. These are clear clues of possible glide avalanches. While not common in the West South zone, they do occur on smooth rock slabs, glaciers, and even heather-covered slopes. Don’t linger on our under steep open slopes where you see glide cracks.

    (2/28/2022)

    Natural wet avalanches, including a slab and loose, were observed by patrollers at Crystal Mountain on 2/28.

    Photo: Crystal Mountain Pro Patrol

Avalanche Discussion

This past week’s atmospheric river event was a doozy. Sites across the zone saw 5-7.5” of precipitation with 4-5” of that falling as rain on most slopes near treeline. As temperatures warmed, only the highest parts of our forecast area (7500-8500’) may have escaped the rain. Not surprisingly, many natural avalanches occurred the last two days of February. While our understanding of the extent of this cycle is still incomplete, natural avalanches were reported near Crystal Mt, White Pass, Mt Rainier, and Mt St Helens. At least some of these were large to very large wet slabs and failed on older snow layers.

Now the natural avalanche cycle has ended and water is making its way out of the snowpack. Runnels across the surface indicate that the snow is draining. While a thin breakable crust formed on some slopes, generally this upper snowpack is still wet and weak. This won’t change until temperatures cool and/or the skies clear allowing a more substantial freeze. Once this happens, it will all but eliminate the avalanche hazard. 

However, above the rain line, you may encounter lingering dry snow avalanche problems. With so much recent water, there could be multiple feet of recent snow at these upper elevations. If you find yourself traveling through deep dry snow, consider the possibility for slab avalanches on any slope greater than 35 degrees. Because of the recent stormy weather, we have no information about the snowpack in these high reaches of the zone. 

With all the recent rain, it’s no surprise that challenging travel conditions developed. Thick wet heavy snow, breakable crusts, icy slopes, open creeks, and exposed obstacles await you in your travels.

Regions covered