Avalanche forecast

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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Conditions will become dangerous as the sun and warm temperatures turn the snow to mush. The likelihood of both natural and human-triggered wet avalanches will increase through the day. Plan an early start, and be ready to move to gentler or colder terrain as the surface crust breaks down. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The threat of natural and human-triggered wet avalanches will increase throughout the day. Last night's temps were the warmest so far, and despite some forecasted cloud cover, today will be another hot one.

    The extended heatwave continues to pump liquid water into the snowpack. The snowpack has been receiving at least some surface freeze during the night—which has been the saving grace. This can happen when overnight temperatures are above freezing as long as skies are clear (learn more). Even a weak overnight freeze gives the snowpack a breather before the water factory shifts into back high gear with daytime warming and sunshine.

    While wet slide conditions are fairly predictable, the expected nature (type, frequency, and size) of the avalanches can be hard to pin down. You can read more about the different types of wet slides in the Forecast Discussion below. With the exception of one large wet slab, most natural wet avalanches have been relatively small. Will the cumulative effects of the prolonged warming lead to an uptick in the size and frequency of avalanches? That's hard to say. But I don't recommend overstaying your welcome in steep, sunny terrain to find out.

    As the surface crust thaws and breaks down, conditions will deteriorate rapidly. Plan your day accordingly—start early, and plan to be off and out from beneath very steep, sunny slopes before the crust completely thaws. Once you're punching through the surface, it's time to be out of harm's way.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION:Triggering a dry, persistent slab avalanche has become unlikely—but not impossible. The weak layer responsible for several triggered slides in neighboring zones still exists in middle and upper elevation shady terrain. Where is there still a small chance of triggering a persistent slab avalanche? On shadier, very steep (over about 35 degrees) slopes where past wind events have built a stiffer, denser slab. While less likely, triggering slabs in sheltered terrain can't be entirely ruled out.

    (3/25/2022) Small wet loose avalanche in Swamp Creek south of Copper Mountain.

Avalanche Discussion

WET AVALANCHES: THE NATURE OF THE BEAST

It's Day 4 of an extended warmup. While wet avalanche conditions are predictable, the expected type and size of wet slides are not. Here are some of the beasts that could rear their ugly heads as the heatwave continues:

Thin Wet Loose Slides: These are your common, "run of the mill" type of wet snow avalanche. While they are typically small (photo), they can sweep you off of your feet and carry you where you don't want to go. They often originate near warm cliff bands and rocks on very steep slopes that directly face the sun. We've observed dozens of these slides in the past few days across all forecast zones. 

Gouging Wet Loose Slides: As the heatwave continues to increase the buildup of liquid water in the snowpack, wet avalanches can become larger and deeper. Thin wet slides that begin on the surface can gouge down deeper into soupy, saturated snow. These slides are more likely where the snowpack is shallow and weak (less than about 2 feet thick), and on very steep, rocky slopes that are sheltered from the wind.

Wet Slabs: Ben spotted a wet slab avalanche on Thursday on an E/SE-facing slope at 9,700' in the Boulder Mtns. It was a large, destructive slide that broke over 300' wide (photo). Wet slabs occur when meltwater pools and spreads along a weak layer in the snowpack, weakening the bond of the overlying slab. These slides are notoriously difficult to predict. We do know that to have a wet slab, we need defined weak layers of snow and plenty of meltwater production. As it turns out, we have both of these!

Cornices: Large cornices sit atop many steep, alpine ridgelines (photo). Cornice failures are likely in the next few days as warm temperatures cause these features to sag and break. Give cornices a wide berth and limit the time you spend below them. 

The silver lining is that these differing wet avalanches can all be avoided with the same tactics: Plan to start and end your day early. Pay attention to the extent of the overnight freeze—if the snowpack isn't supportable to start, pull the plug. Monitor how quickly the surface crust breaks down, and be ready to move to colder or gentler terrain at the first hint of punching through the crust. And make sure you plan a safe exit to your day, one that's not threatened from above.

Catch up on what happened this past week in Ethan's latest Weekend Update!

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