Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It is unlikely that you will trigger a large avalanche failing on weak layers near the ground. Very steep terrain remains the most suspect. The possibility of triggering a small wet slide will increase today in high, steep, south-facing terrain as temperatures warm.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Weak snow remains buried 1-3 feet on Togwotee. Avalanches are unlikely in most terrain. However, weak snow exists in all avalanche terrain, and triggering an avalanche cannot be ruled out if you are unlucky enough to find the one thin trigger point.  Very steep terrain is the most likely place to find a trigger point. Wind-affected areas and rocky outcrops often hide thin spots where you can impact the weak layer.  Evaluate the snowpack and terrain with an eye for thin spots.

    Upper elevation, steep southerly slopes will become more sensitive throughout the day with sunshine and warming temperatures. Wet loose activity will be small but possible.

    (1/16/2025)

    An example of terrain where persistent slab avalanches are most likely.

    Photo: Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

The last two and a half weeks have been mostly dry, with plenty of sunshine, cold temperatures, and wind. These conditions have created a variety of snow conditions at and near the surface. Extensive faceting exists in shady sheltered locations, hard windboard exists in exposed areas, surface hoar has formed on the surface and exists under the most recent snowfall, and multiple crusts have formed on southwest through southeast slopes exposed to the sun. Most of this equates to an increase in avalanche activity during and after the next storm that will arrive on Friday night. One weather model shows Togwotee receiving over 2.5 inches of water and over 30 inches of snow. Regardless of the totals, expect avalanche activity this weekend and create a mental model of where these current conditions exist and how that will affect danger this weekend.

If you see avalanche activity today, I ask that you please consider submitting an observation HERE. Observations allow everyone to gain a better and more complete understanding of conditions. Thanks!

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