Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Consecutive nights of above freezing temperatures and ample sunshine is helping destabilize the snow surface, but is also adding more “melt-water” weight and stress to buried weak snow grains. Approach slopes around 35 degrees with caution and consider dialing back your objectives during peak daytime heating. Retreat to shadier slopes, move higher in elevation, or simply call it a day if you start to sink past your shins into wet, rotten snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Weak grains two to three feet deep linger below a stiffening slab. These persistent grains have become more difficult to affect and produce failures in tests, but should not be discounted during the prolonged warm-up. Despite being buried for over a month, surface hoar features (8 to 12 mm) still loom on northerly-facing slopes. East and west-facing slopes harbor a thin, breakable crust with facets above and below. As the snowpack settles and evolves from the warmer weather, this process will also help mask clues of hidden danger below. To navigate this uncertainty, avoid exposure to steep, rocky slopes where any one of these weaker grains could be more shallowly buried.

    (2/27/2025)

    Believe it or not, but these surface hoar feathers still exist under an over meter deep slab on a northeast-facing slope around 6,100 feet. They got buried on January 31. These grains did not fail in standard snowpack tests, but did fail in a Deep Tap test at 20 taps. Bitterroot Mountains. February 27, 2025.

    Photo: Chris Bilbrey

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Ample sunshine and almost 48 hours of above freezing temperatures keeps an elevated risk of wet snow avalanches. Even with a thin, slightly re-frozen snow surface, these conditions rapidly destabilize the snow surface on slopes steeper than about 30 degrees. Moist or wet snow may shed naturally or start sloughing downhill from a human or machine. Loose wet slides that travel long distances will entrain additional snow, and create a dangerous pile of snow at the bottom of slopes, and in gullies and creeks. In some cases, loose wet slides can trigger a more destructive Wet Slab avalanche. This type of avalanche can release suddenly or without any warning, and are very difficult to predict when they might occur. Monitor surface warming, watch for surface clues like rollerballs or pinwheels, and avoid traveling below steeper slopes if the snow is wet and gloppy. 

    **The presence of fresh glide cracks or widening older cracks is a clear indicator of instability, and slopes exhibiting these features should be avoided. Given the highly unpredictable nature of glide avalanche failure, avoiding travel on or beneath these slopes is strongly advised**

    (2/24/2025) Photo: Micah Krmpotich

Avalanche Discussion

The stretch of warm, sunny weather is helping nudge the snowpack toward a less reactive, more stubborn state - at least on shady aspects. Don’t discount buried weak grains just yet as they have provided us with plenty of exciting snowpack test results and many large to very large avalanches over the last month. As the slab above continues to settle and stiffen, the number of spots on a slope where a rider or machine could affect them and provoke a slide also diminish. Steep, rocky, or heavily wind-scoured places where slab depth is more variable might increase your chance to find trouble. Sticking to more planar slopes without cliffs, rock bands, or broad convexities may help reduce the triggering potential, but will not fully eliminate the hazard either.

On sunny slopes, the plethora of sunny skies and above freezing temperatures is pumping melt-water into upper snowpack layers. The wetting front is traveling deeper at lower elevations where overnight temperatures have remained in the mid to upper 30s for almost 48 hours. Once the wetting front reaches weak, faceted grains or a crust, individual grain bonds weaken and they become more susceptible to failure. Slopes where the top 6 or 8 inches of snow has become wet and unconsolidated, those slopes have the best chance to sluff with ski pressure or when sidehilling on a machine. Wet snow debris can be a challenge to escape and a relatively small amount of debris can quickly push you somewhere you don’t want to go.

If heading into the mountains today, don’t let the beautiful weather cloud your judgment. Be aware of the varying flavors of avalanche concerns, and be willing to adjust your travels on the flip of a dime. If moving up in elevation and onto more northerly-facing slopes to escape the warmth, investigate what’s below you and assess the risks of a low-probability, high-consequence avalanche. Stay alert and make informed decisions.

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