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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2016–Jan 13th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

If you wake up with more than 20cm of new snow on the ground, or if the snowfall becomes intense during the day avalanche danger may be higher than advertised.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Moderate snowfall is expected to continue through until Thursday. Shames could see up to 20cm of storm snow by Wednesday morning with another 10cm through the day and 10cm overnight. Coastal regions should receive slight more, and northern areas slightly less than this. Isolated flurries are forecast for Thursday. Friday will be mainly cloudy with no significant precipitation expected. Winds will be moderate from the southwest Wednesday but should drop to light by Thursday. The freezing level will remain fairly steady between 1500m and 1000m.

Avalanche Summary

We've receive reports of several natural and skier triggered avalanches ranging from size 1-2 from across the region. It sounds like the surface hoar could be starting to wake up!

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15 cm of new snow now covers a widespread layer of surface hoar. Bellow this the upper 100cm consists of at least 3 other distinct buried weak layers of surface hoar, faceted snow, and possible thin sun crusts on some solar aspects. These deeper weak interfaces continue to produce variable results in snow pack tests. Although they appear to be gaining strength they're worth keeping on your radar a little longer. Recent strong southerly winds have formed fresh soft slabs in lee and cross-loaded terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.