Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist today near and above treeline. Recent snow and strong winds have built cohesive slabs resting on top of a weak shallow faceted snowpack. You are likely to trigger a persistent slab or wind slab avalanche today, especially on North through East aspects where we've had the most amount of loading.  Avoid traveling on or below slopes greater than 35 degrees that show obvious signs of wind loading and keep an eye out for signs of instability such as audible collapses and shooting cracks.  Avalanches that run on deeper weak layers will be large enough to bury or injury you and may run long distances.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    A weak shallow faceted snowpack that existed before this recent snow is struggling to adjust to the added weight and new cohesive slabs that formed on the surface.  Strong SW winds during the storm have easily transported and loaded slopes, especially on East and North aspects near and above treeline.  The one constant out there right now is well connected weak faceted snow in the snowpack. The missing ingredient that we now have is a cohesive slab able to propagate wide distances. 

    Persistent Slab avalanches will have the potential to be triggered remotely from a distance and from lower angled terrain.  Pay attention to obvious clues like loud audible whumfs and shooting cracks. These avalanches could be large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes greater than 35 degrees today. 

    Intentionally remotely triggered avalanche from where I'm standing on a small north-facing slope near treeline.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1

    Strong SW winds during the storm have easily transported the 8 - 12" of snow near and above treeline.  These soft slabs have formed on a variety of different surfaces from hard slabs, crusts to faceted snow that formed on the surface before this last storm.  The leeward side of ridgelines and cross-loaded gullies and slopes will have the most amount of loading where slabs could be upwards of 2 feet thick.  Winds died down early Tuesday morning with several inches of low-density snow on top of these more cohesive slabs and may not be obvious to spot. Don't be lulled into thinking it's just light fluffy snow, winds were cranking during the early parts of the storm giving these slabs enough cohesiveness to be able to propagate.

    Pay attention to obvious clues like shooting cracks on the surface. A smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.  

    Shooting cracks like this from Tuesday are good indications that you've found wind effected snow near the surface or persistent weak layers deeper in the snowpack.

Avalanche Discussion

Storm totals from Monday/Tuesday's storm are 8 - 12" of snow with .7 - 1.1" of snow water equivalent (SWE).  The strong SW winds on Monday where we had gusts in the 90's and sustained winds in the 20 to 40 mph range have died down and are now only in the single digits.  Temperatures this morning are chilly in the single digits, but should quickly warm under sunny skies and calm winds during the day.

Many natural and skier triggered avalanches were observed yesterday. It appears that we went through peak instability early Tuesday morning when we picked up 2" in an hour for snow.  Although visibility wasn't the greatest yesterday, large debris piles could be observed running well into the flats. These avalanches seemed to be confined to North to East and even SE aspects near and above treeline with many running in older faceted weak layers.  Some avalanches we observed were large size 2 avalanches that would easily bury a person.  

In travels on Tuesday, conditions were quite touchy and I expect that trend to continue today.  Widespread cracking, collapsing, and remotely triggering small avalanches on test slopes was the theme of the day near and above treeline. It's hard to trust any slope right now with this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak over more widespread areas. Natural avalanche activity has most likely come to an end, but many slopes are just waiting for a trigger (like you) to get the slope to avalanche. 

Below treeline we're not noticing a cohesive slab on the surface, but areas that are open or exposed to the wind are slopes that may have a slab able to propagate.  In steep terrain, small surface sluffs may pick up momentum and be able to entrain and gouge the weak faceted snow all the way to the ground creating a larger avalanche that could sweep you into trees or terrain traps.  With the sun, warming temperatures, and low-density snow on the surface, we could see loose snow avalanches on steep solar aspects starting in the rocks. 

It's going to be enticing to want to go ski or ride on a bluebird powder day, especially after conditions before the storm wasn't the greatest.  As we've come to learn living during this COVID era, it's going to take time, and that's true for the snowpack as it slowly adjusts to this latest round of snow. Fight the temptation to chase steep powder today. Sticking to wind sheltered terrain less than 35 degrees is a great way to stay safe and have fun. 

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