Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist today as human-triggered persistent slab avalanches are likely near and above treeline. The fragile weak faceted snowpack before the two-foot storm has not held up well to the added load and will continue to need time to adjust. Wind drifted slopes and cross-loaded gullies that have seen the most amount of loading will be most suspect  It's possible to trigger avalanches from long distances or from below.  Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential today.  Any avalanche triggered could be large and dangerous.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The weak faceted snowpack continues to struggle to adjust to the recent significant load. Shooting cracks and loud audible collapses continue to be the norm in travels. Variable wind directions over the last three days have loaded slopes near and above treeline into cohesive slabs that rest on top of weak faceted layers. Below treeline, these avalanches were smaller and failing on a thin layer of basal facets near the ground so we are keeping avalanche danger there at Moderate. However, these smaller avalanches still have the ability to take you for a consequential ride into trees, rocks, or terrain traps.

    Pay attention to obvious clues like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks. You can trigger these avalanches from long distances and from below.  Avoid slopes or terrain steeper than 35 degrees being mindful of avalanche terrain that's above you.

    Various weak faceted layers that exist in the snowpack have not handled it's first significant test well.

Avalanche Discussion

We picked up 1-2 inches of low-density snow early Tuesday morning.  Moderate NW winds over the last 24 hours have been strong enough to easily transport snow at ridgetops.  We've removed wind slabs as the main problem continues to be persistent slab avalanches, but encountering a stiff wind slab on the leeward side of a ridgeline or in a cross-loaded gully can't be ruled out above treeline. 

In our travels, we continue to get widespread whumpf's and shooting cracks at all elevations.  A remotely triggered avalanche from an adjacent slope from well below the crown on Monday is a great indication that slabs and weak layers are able to communicate long distances right now.  It's a safe assumption to assume any slope right now has a 2 - 3' slab on top of some form of weak layer either near the ground as depth hoar or near-surface facets just below the storm snow.  Any slope over 35 degrees should be considered suspect and able to produce an avalanche large enough to bury you.

Conditions are starting to ease as we push further away from the last significant loading event and the Natural avalanche cycle early Sunday morning. But every indication is that the snowpack is still sensitive right now and just waiting for a trigger. 

Terrain selection is the one tool we have right now to not put ourselves in harm's way.  Slowing down and sticking to terrain less than 30 degrees is a great way to keep yourself safe.  Always be mindful of what slopes may be above you as you could potentially release an avalanche from above even from flat terrain.  Consider the consequences of what would happen if you triggered an avalanche, watch for terrain traps where snow can easily collect.  Stay safe and fight the temptation to chase powder right now.  The snowpack is still sensitive and needs time to adjust to this load as it hasn't gotten much of a break over the last 5 days.    

It's setting up that we may be living with this persistent slab problem for a while longer like we tend to here in northern New Mexico.  Many slopes released naturally and are back to shallow snowpacks that will be susceptible to the faceting process and could be repeat offenders later on. Slopes that haven't avalanched have a poor snowpack structure of strong over weak and will need to be monitored before we put another load on it, which may be a little while.  

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