Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Low danger doesn't mean No danger. Triggering a small persistent slab avalanche is unlikely but not impossible if you find the "sweet spot".   North through East aspects above treeline has the most concern with isolated pockets of strong stiff slabs over weak faceted snow.  Even a small avalanche right now can have serious consequences with lots of natural hazards.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1

    Triggering an avalanche on weak faceted layers beneath stiff slabs is becoming increasingly difficult as we move further away from the last significant loading event.   Not all slopes on N through E aspects have this poor snowpack structure so take the time to assess if the slope you plan to ski or ride has this strong over weak structure.   These hard slabs will easily support the weight of a skier or rider until you find that "sweet spot".  Typically near the margins of the slab and near rock outcrops where the slab is thinner.  It might not be the first person on the slope to trigger an avalanche.  

     

    The strong over weak snowpack structure you can find on N through E aspects above treeline

Avalanche Discussion

It's been a good start to the season as we turn the page to December and a little more snow in the forecast today into Wednesday. The last reported avalanche was on Saturday and it's been nearly a week since our last significant loading event from the pre-Thanksgiving storm.  A chance of light low-density snowfall later on today won't be enough weight to impact any weak layers in the snowpack. 

Persistent slab avalanche concerns are confined to isolated slopes at upper elevations on N through E aspects. Roughly a foot of decomposing snow from 11/23-24  sits on top of hard slabs that formed from a strong wind event at the beginning of November.  These hard slabs feel good underfoot and the only way to tell what's beneath is with a probe or taking the time to dig down into the snow.  The slabs do not appear to be well connected and an avalanche most likely would be small if you found the sweet spot.  However, consider the consequences that even a small ride might entail in this shallow snowpack. You can easily reduce your risk by avoiding these slopes all together.

There are obvious graupel layers from the 11/23 storm, that have been healing over the last week and we have not been getting this layer to propagate in extended column tests as we are not finding cohesive slabs above these layers. 

Below 10,000' the snowpack is quickly disappearing on anything but north aspects and shady slopes.  Below treeline, it's still very much an early-season shallow snowpack. Natural obstacles like rocks and downed trees present the biggest hazards at these elevations. 

Near treeline has a deeper snowpack (2 to 3 feet) and tends to lack any cohesive slab.  Over the last week, cold nights and warming sunny days have helped drive a faceting process that is weakening the snow at these elevations.  On some slopes, we are finding cohesionless snow to the ground that isn't much of a concern now.  However, could become a concern down the road when we do get significant snow and cohesive slabs.  

Regions covered