Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 31st, 2013–Jan 1st, 2014

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Purcells.

A number of significant avalanches have occurred in the north of this region and just beyond its northern boundary. Check the forecaster blog. Use caution if traveling in the backcountry at this time.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Dry in the morning with a chance of flurries in the afternoon. Treeline temperatures around -8C. Winds NW 30-40 km/h at ridgetop.Thursday: 5-10 cm new snow expected. Freezing levels rising briefly to around 1300 m in the afternoon. Winds W 50-60 km/h at ridgetop.Friday: 2-5 cm new snow expected. Temperatures around -10C. Winds around 30 km/h from the NW.

Avalanche Summary

A number of significant avalanches have been reported from the north of this region and just beyond its boundary to the north. One very large (size 3) avalanche was reported on Tuesday on a N aspect at 2200 m from relatively gentle terrain with a fracture depth of 100 cm. Two large (size 2) avalanches were reported from near Golden on Monday, likely triggering buried surface hoar from 10-Dec down around 50 cm. A size 3 natural avalanche was reported from the Bugaboos on Sunday on a NE aspect at 2650m, triggered by a cornice release that pulled out a large slab all the way to ground on the slope below. Outside the boundary of this region to the north of Golden, there was an incident in the Hope Creek drainage, where four people were involved (with two sustaining injuries) in a size 3 avalanche in an alpine feature on a NE aspect.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 25 cm of recent storm snow has been redistributed by moderate to strong northwest and southwest winds. These new windslabs cover older, stiff, dense wind slabs in exposed lee terrain at and above treeline. In the upper 80 cm of the snowpack a couple persistent weak layers exist, comprising of surface hoar and a facet/crust combo. This interface has produced variable results with snowpack tests, and operators are keeping a close eye on them as the load above increases and/or a slab develops.A bigger concern, especially in the Northern part of the region where the snowpack is thinner and more variable is weak faceted and depth hoar crystals combined with a crust from early October. This is now down around 80-120 cm. This deep persistent weakness appears to be more reactive in the north of the region. It is likely to be easier to trigger where the snowpack is relatively thin, and especially on steep, convex, north-facing slopes.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.