Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Triggering a large avalanche is likely on many steep slopes. Skiers and riders should continue to choose low-angle terrain that isn't threatened by steeper slopes above. There have been many human-triggered avalanches in the past week. Most of these were triggered remotely—from below, above, and to the sides of steeper slopes.

Avalanche danger will rise late in the day and overnight. If the storm is earlier than forecast, expect to see the likelihood of natural and human-triggered avalanches increase significantly this afternoon.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    The storm early last week added more load to our well-established persistent weak layer that is now buried around 2-3 feet deep in this zone. The highest concentration of observed natural avalanches occurred in the drainages near Smiley Creek (example) and in the far Western Smokys, but slides also occurred in the Sawtooths. On Wednesday and Friday of last week, riders remotely-triggered avalanches in the Western Smokys (photo, photo). Chris was in the northern Sawtooths on Saturday, where he found a 2.5' thick, dense slab atop a layer of sugary facets that was showing little signs of improvement. With the weak layer in this zone more deeply buried, it may be somewhat more difficult to trigger a slide than in other portions of the forecast area. But if you do trigger an avalanche, it's likely to be a big one that will be difficult to survive.

    On Sunday, an experienced skier north of this zone remotely triggered a large avalanche that failed on a steeper slope adjacent to where he was skiing. He reported hearing wood breaking as the avalanche descended the slope. I looked at this slide and a few others yesterday, watch a video recapping what I saw here: Butterfield Avalanche. I was in the Gladiator Creek drainage on Sunday, investigating a large natural avalanche (photo at right) that appeared to have released within the past two days. You can watch a video describing what I found and why it is important here: Gladiator Creek Avalanche. The snowpack is a bit thinner in both of these areas, but not fundamentally different.

    There are two key factors that point to this instability being especially long-lasting and unpredictable: 1) the buried weak layer is especially bad, and 2) this weak layer has been very slowly loaded over the past three weeks.  Recent natural and human-triggered avalanches confirm this fact. We urge backcountry skiers and riders to continue to choose low angle slopes and to pay extra attention to the terrain they're "connected" to. Remotely triggering an avalanche from below, above, and to the sides of steep slopes remains a very real possibility.

Avalanche Discussion

Our snowpack continues to give us clear signs that it isn't "happy". Even as the days pass since the storm last week we continue to see obvious signs of instability relating to this weak snow. Each day, observers report widespread cracking and collapsing of the snowpack, even on heavily traveled skin tracks. More importantly, observations of both natural and human-triggered avalanches continue to roll in. Our snowpack is speaking to us plainly and clearly. Our job as riders and skiers is to listen to what is being said. 

We deal with dangerous avalanche conditions by operating with wide safety margins and mentally preparing ourselves to behave that way for the long run. Today is no less dangerous than yesterday and tomorrow will be worse, not better. Stay alert to the terrain that you are traveling through and that you are exposed to from above. Recent natural and human-triggered avalanches are clear signs that the problems in our snowpack aren't healing. We need to continue to make conservative decisions in the backcountry in order to ensure our safe return home at the end of the day. 

Have a look at this video that I made yesterday describing a human-triggered avalanche, an elk-triggered avalanche, and a very large natural avalanche I observed and what they say about our snowpack.

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