Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist. You can trigger an avalanche within the 2 to 4-foot storm slab that has built over the last four days.  Large persistent slab avalanches failing on deeper faceted weak layers still remains a concern.  You may be able to remotely trigger an avalanche from a long-distance away.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 35 degrees as any avalanche triggered may run long distances and be able to injure or bury you.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    2 to 4-foot storm slabs that have been building over the last four days have greatly stressed the faceted weak layers deeper down in the snowpack.  Yesterday we had a widespread natural and human triggered avalanche cycle at all elevations.  These persistent weak layers will need time to adjust to this added load.

    There are several faceted weak layers of concern in the snowpack with the most likely weak layer to trigger being the buried near-surface facets that formed during the 3 week high-pressure period before these storms. Below treeline, slabs rest on top of an entirely faceted snowpack to the ground.   A persistent slab avalanche that initially fails in an upper faceted weak layer has a chance to step down into deeper faceted weak layers creating a larger unsurvivable avalanche.

    Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like collapsing and shooting cracks. You can trigger a persistent slab avalanche from the flats below or adjacent slopes. Stay off of or underneath slopes that are greater than 35 degrees as we may see avalanches running long distances today.

    Remotely triggered persistent slab avalanche from well below the crown on 1/25. This avalanche failed on facets near the ground.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Storm slabs have been building over the last four days and these slabs are 2 to 4 feet thick. These soft slabs will be thicker and more sensitive near and above treeline on the leeward side of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain.  Storm slabs may fail within the new snow or at the old snow/new snow interface where these slabs rest on top of weak facets.

    With sun and warming temperatures in the forecast today, you may see loose snow avalanches from steep terrain. These loose snow "sluffs" could be large enough to sweep you off your feet. They also could cause a point release that is able to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive slab avalanche.

    Small storm slab trigged from where the photo was taken on a small test slope.

Avalanche Discussion

It's been an active last 4 days with 24 to 32 inches of snow and 2.35 to 3" of snow water equivalent (SWE).  Over the last several day's avalanche danger has been increasing, culminating with yesterday storm where we received 8 to 12" of snow about 1" of SWE. This last storm was enough to tip the scales as we had a widespread natural and human-triggered avalanche cycle at all elevations.  Thankfully it sounds like everyone is ok. Unfortunately, we're not out of the woods just yet and with sunny blue-bird powder, today is not the day to let your guard down. Most avalanche accidents and fatalities happen at the considerable danger rating that we're currently at.   The snowpack is going to need time as it adjusts to all this added weight.

With better visibility today, we should get a better idea of the extent of yesterday's avalanche cycle that we suspect had peak instability sometime mid-morning when we had 1 - 2" an hour snowfall rates with moderate west winds.  Assume any slope that has not avalanched to be considered suspect and most likely will just need you as a trigger.  Yesterday, conditions were quite touchy, with many remotely triggered and sympathetic avalanches. Conditions may not be as sensitive today, but remotely triggering an avalanche from a long-distance remains a real possibility. 

Below treeline storm slabs have formed over the weak faceted cohesionless snow that existed before this storm.  If you've been out skiing before this storm you probably experienced terrible skiing and riding conditions where you sunk all the way to the ground.  Well, now we've put over 2" of water and 2 to 3 foot slabs on top of this weak snow.  This weak snow is struggling to handle this added weight.  Near and above treeline several faceted layers are sandwiched between varying hard slabs or crusts that formed from prior wind events. As we've seen over the last several days, smaller avalanches have the potential to step down into these deeper weak layers creating larger more destructive avalanches. 

I know it sounds like doom and gloom and those that know me, know I want to ski the steep and deep.  However, this is the first big test this weak and poor snowpack structure has had this season and it's going to need time. It's not all bad news though as hopefully, with a deepening snowpack and more snow in the forecast, slopes that didn't avalanche will start to see faceted weak layers start to heal and gain strength. Those slopes that did avalanche, hopefully, it was a facet flushing event, where we'll start building back the snowpack without those concerning faceted weak layers.      

Don't get lured into chasing steep powder today.  Stick to low angle terrain avoiding being on or connected to steeper slopes above.   

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