Avalanche forecast

Banner Summit

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche conditions are still dangerous. You could trigger a 3' thick avalanche on some slopes—which would likely be unsurvivable. Avalanches may be triggered remotely—from below, above, and to the sides of steep slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    The slow loading of the December facet layer has produced a well-established persistent slab problem across the entire forecast area. Last week's storm caused a widespread avalanche cycle in the adjacent Sawtooths, but less natural avalanche activity was observed in this zone where the weak layer is the most deeply buried.

    The weak layer is buried about 3' deep on almost every slope. While there are early signs that the layer is starting to strengthen—we're definitely not out of the woods yet. Deep slab problems are very difficult to assess. Snowpack tests are less trustworthy, and classic signs of instability become less common or non-existent. It's important to come back to the simple facts—there is an extremely meaty slab overlying a known weak layer, and if you trigger a slide, it'll likely be unsurvivable. It's not a gamble worth taking. Further muddying the waters, observations indicate that some slopes that avalanched during the Solstice storm are capable of re-loading and running again. 

    The best—and often only—way to manage a deep persistent slab problem is by sticking to lower-angled terrain. Given the possibility of remote-triggering, you'll also want to avoid being below steep slopes. 

    WIND SLABS: Strong winds last week ravaged the snowpack, and we've had several more rounds of wind since the storm ended. Although wind slabs are becoming less reactive to the weight of a skier or rider, wind-loaded slopes will have more stress on the buried weak layer making them especially dangerous. If you do trigger a lingering wind slab, it could "step down", failing on layers deeper in the snowpack and becoming much larger than the initial avalanche. 

    (1/14/2021) Avalanche that released south of Copper Mountain. This slope avalanched during the Solstice storm. E, 8700'

Avalanche Discussion

Maybe I'm dating myself (among other things), but I grew up listening to Guns N' Roses. And the song that keeps popping into my head is "Patience"—give it a listen if you need to get psyched for your day, or if you were born after Y2K.

Axl was a lot of things, but I don't believe he is or was a backcountry rider. But he sure nailed it with the importance of patience. It's one of the best skills you can develop to keep you safe in our area in general, and this year in particular. Given the prevalence of long-lasting weak layers in Central Idaho, whether you can out-wait the persistent slab problem is a good predictor of your backcountry safety. 

If you're one of those types that are always jonesing to ride the steepest terrain you can get away with, or even if you're not, challenge yourself to find different ways to enjoy the backcountry while keeping out of harm's way. In addition to listening to late-80s hair bands, here are a few things you might consider:

  • Develop a fondness for low-angle, OPP—"old person powder" (no offense intended, some would call me old). Fat skis or horsepower make this even more fun.
  • Climb a peak. There are a number of high points that can be reached via low angle slopes or avalanche-proof ridgelines.
  • Work on a speed record for your favorite climb. No lycra necessary!
  • Use the latest digital mapping tools to explore a new area or put together a route/loop through mellow terrain. 

These are just a few ideas, and there are many others. The point is that a single-minded approach to backcountry satisfaction can make patience a losing battle. It will be a while before we reach the "Paradise City" of a stable snowpack, potentially a long while. But it usually comes—and we want to make sure we're all around to enjoy it.

Oh, and didn't we have some "November Rain" this season? Enough already.

Be sure to check out Ethan's latest Weekend Update. Spoiler alert—it was yet ANOTHER exciting week!

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