Avalanche forecast

Galena Summit & Eastern Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a large 1-3 foot thick slab avalanche is possible. Avalanches are most likely where the wind has formed drifts or stiffened the snow surface. To reduce your risk, steer clear of obviously wind-loaded terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    There are two primary persistent weak layers to keep in mind. The first exists under storm snow from early January and the second lies near the base of the snowpack. Avalanches on either of these layers will be large and destructive. 

    Over the weekend, a cluster of slab avalanches released in the Smoky Mountains near Baker Creek (photo, photo) and in Boulder Mountains near the N. Fork of the Big Wood. These slides share characteristics that point toward where triggering a slide is most likely again today.

    • Wind-loaded terrain: Slopes where the wind formed drifts and/or stiffened the snow surface. 
    • Steeper slopes:  Slopes around 35-45 degrees in steepness.
    • Southerly facing terrain: Crusts and facets just below the recent storm snow appear to be slower to stabilize on SW-S-SE aspects than the weak layers on shadier slopes.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSIONRecent light snowfall and moderate wind built sensitive cornices and small wind slabs near exposed ridgelines. Cracks shooting from your boards or sled are the best clue that you’ve found a sensitive slab.

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday we dropped the danger to MODERATE. Although any drop in danger gives the appearance of a large step toward safer conditions the reality is often much more nuanced. We’re now several days out from our last significant snowfall and the most recent slab avalanches occurred over the weekend. As time passes, the chances of triggering a slide are slowly decreasing (as with the danger), but the size and consequence of an avalanche remain the same. 

The scenario we're facing is commonly referred to as “low probability, high consequence,” or LPHC for short. LPHC events are tricky to deal with, in the backcountry and in life in general. You must decide what threshold of risk is acceptable. 

In the absence of obvious signs of instability choosing what terrain you’re comfortable exposing yourself to can become a bit of a head game. You might find it helpful to decide what is “off-limits” before leaving the house. This reduces the potential for other groups to influence your level of risk. It also removes the temptation to accept more risk based on information (like tracks on a slope) that has no bearing on the stability equation. 

Slides like these (photo, photo, photo) are what we’re gambling against. Build a safety margin into your travel plan and stick with it. 

Details from Wednesday's Avalanche Accident in Baker Creek:On Wednesday, January 15th, 2020, a snowmobiler was caught and killed in an avalanche in the Baker Creek drainage, approximately a half-mile northeast of Baker Lake. This video contains preliminary information collected during a site visit last week; a full accident report will be published in the coming days.

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