Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Persistent dry weather through January has allowed generally safe avalanche conditions to develop. You can still find soft snow and some good turns in the backcountry and this is a great time to be out exploring new areas while looking for that soft snow. Human triggering an avalanche breaking deeply into the snowpack is unlikely. Even during low danger, it is important to continue utilizing safe travel protocols when in avalanche terrain. Such as exposing only one person on the slope at a time and regrouping in areas protected from an unexpected large to very large avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–2.5

    Persistent slabs are a very low likelihood but high consequence concern on the northern half of the compass, where faceted weak layers still lurk near the ground. It has been over two weeks since the last natural avalanche on basal weak layers, while the last explosively triggered avalanche was on January 10th. This avalanche problem has become very unlikely to human trigger. You can further reduce your risk of triggering this avalanche problem by avoiding trigger points where the snowpack depth transitions quickly from shallow to deep. 

    One of the few avalanches triggered since the New Year breaking near the ground.  This was an explosive triggered hard slab on a west aspect at Irwin, where slab depths are variable due to seasonal wind patterns.  

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche conditions have grown quiet with little to no day-to-day change. Backcountry skiers and riders stayed respectful when avalanche conditions were more dangerous earlier this month. Now those groups are stepping out and ridding more aggressively as the avalanche danger has gone from one end of the spectrum, all the way down to the other. The wind and sun have created a lot of wind board and sun crusts on the snow surface. While more protected slopes are still holding some great riding conditions. 

When we reach the low end of the avalanche danger scale, it's important to remember that it is hard to find conditions that you can ever completely remove the chance of triggering an avalanche. For that reason, you have to stay vigilant and continue to utilize those safe travel protocols. Don't gather your group in exposed avalanche terrain just because you don't think you could trigger an avalanche. Instead, keep doing what you should always do and regroup in areas that are protected from large to very large avalanches. It is so easy to become complacent when avalanche conditions get quiet. Just yesterday I found myself standing on a steep convex slope wanting to watch my buddy ski some pillows. I had to remind myself to move to a safer area because even if we didn't expect to trigger an avalanche, the low probability of getting caught in a large avalanche is just not worth hanging out in an exposed area.  

No notable changes are expected over the coming days and the majority of the snowpack will continue its trend of getting stronger and more trustworthy. New weak layers are forming on the surface of the current snowpack. Once we see the arrival of new snow the avalanche forecast will transition to the development of new avalanche problems. With more time the current avalanche problems may even be moved off the problem list as slab avalanche releasing on old December snow will take a prolonged and notable loading event to reactivate. 

Regions covered