Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Loose wet avalanches remain a danger, especially on slopes that face the sun. Move to simpler, less avalanche exposed terrain if you observe signs of instability or current avalanche activity. Avalanche danger will be greater along Hwy 2 in areas that received more new snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Loose wet avalanches in new snow were observed on Friday and Saturday around Stevens Pass. Expect to see more of these avalanches in the days ahead as freezing levels remain high and the sun continues to make a strong showing. The likelihood is higher on south facing slopes near and above treeline where deeper new snow will be more susceptible to warming, become weaker, and therefore more likely to avalanche. Avoid travel on and under steep terrain when the snow surface warms and becomes unsupportable.  Choose terrain based on options to minimize exposure to loose wet avalanches. Evaluate changing conditions as the day warms and be prepared to change course if you make observations different from expected. If you find a thick crust topping snow surfaces, then loose wet avalanches are unlikely. 

     

    Example of wet loose avalanches in new snow.

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

A few more naturally triggered, loose wet avalanches to D2 were reported on Saturday around Stevens Pass.  Though not especially large they did run from near treeline into below treeline terrain.

At the highest elevations, small wind slabs still present a risk in steep, exposed terrain. Identify and evaluate winds slabs before moving onto consequential slopes. Overhead hazards from cornices and glide avalanches abound in some areas. Though the likelihood of one of these avalanches is low,  you should still identify and minimize time spent below anything that looks unstable and poorly attached to the rest of the slope.

This weekend brought a combination of the strongest sun and warmest temperatures seen yet this year.  On the other hand, we have a very strong rain and melt affected snowpack that has been through numerous wet avalanche cycles plus nearly two weeks of melting, draining, and freezing. So far this has limited the effects of warming and made for lower avalanche danger compared to similar weather with a colder, drier snowpack. Other factors that have limited the effects of warming are short days (not much time to warm up), long nights with clear to partly cloudy skies (plenty of time for the snow surface to cool and refreeze), and the low angle of the sun compared to late winter and spring.

Other than avalanche hazards, expect challenging travel conditions on frozen, uneven surfaces earlier in the day. Steep tree covered terrain has been noted as particularly difficult to navigate. If you haven’t made it to the mountains since the rain and warm temperature regime took over 10 days ago be prepared to see a very different environment. Exposed rock, glide cracks, open creeks and a very rough snow surface all present new hazards to avoid.

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