Avalanche forecast

Snoqualmie Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The majority of the avalanche danger you face comes from very large blocks of snow falling off steep and rocky slopes. While these events would likely be rare, it would almost certainly kill you if you happened to be underneath. So, choose routes that help limit the amount of time you spend under these very specific features.

Avalanche problems

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The snowpack took a beating during recent heavy rain, prolonged warm temperatures, and now sunshine. You can see the result of these “heat” stresses. Crevasse-like glide cracks formed “on nearly every slope.” said, several avalanche professionals. What’s tricky, is these slides can fail days after the rain stops. While you aren’t likely to trigger one, they could fail on their own, and you don’t want to be underneath if it happens. Fortunately, these types of avalanches need very specific terrain. Look for very steep rocky slopes with glide cracks. Then, choose routes that help you reduce the amount of time you have to travel underneath them. 

    Similar to Glide avalanches, hanging cornices and blocks of snow lingering on cliffs could fall down during Sunday’s warm temperatures. The solution is the same. Keep your eyes open for these possible hazards above your head. When you see them, limit the time you spend below, or find a way to avoid traveling under them all together.

    (1/9/2022)

    A natural Glide avalanche occurred within the Alpental Ski Resort on the night of 1/7. This slide contained the entire season's snowpack as evident by the exposed rock.

    Photo: Alpental Pro Patrol

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The sunshine and warm temperatures will try their best to soften the snow surface Sunday. If they melt it too much you could find wet and unstable snow on the surface. Your foot is often the best tool to track how soft the surface has become. If you sink in past your ankle or you find very wet and punchy snow, it’s time to seek out lower angle or more frozen slopes. New rollerballs and small point release avalanches can also serve as easy to interpret clues that loose wet slides may occur. While we expect most of these potential avalanches to remain small, if the surface crust breaks down completely, they may gather additional snow and grow large enough to hurt you. Expect soft snow and potential loose wet avalanches on SE-SW aspects, especially at mid-elevations where temperatures may be the warmest.

    (1/13/2022)

    Nope, this isn't a snowpit. The wet surface snow is weak and unsupportable. If you find the surface crust breaking down, anticipate an increase in the wet potential for wet avalanches. 

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

Even with the warm temperatures, a long winter night and mostly clear skies should allow the snow surface to freeze solid by Sunday Morning. This will help limit the loose wet avalanche hazard but should not do much to affect the potentially deadly glide concerns. It’s this high consequence problem that’s maintaining the heightened avalanche conditions in this zone. This prolonged warm spell has barely let any of the weather stations dip below freezing for more than a few hours since last Tuesday. Often weather like this would lead to an uptick in avalanche danger. However, two major avalanche cycles (Jan 6-7 and 11-12) thoroughly tested the snowpack and caused many potentially dangerous slopes to slide. So, we’re left balancing a strongly frozen surface and recently tested snowpack against continued warm and sunny weather. Take a moment to discuss this potential source of uncertainty before you head to large and more consequential objectives. 

Observations at Snoqualmie Pass on Satruday found a 2-3” semi-supportable crust at the surface. While this layer did not fully break down in the sunshine, it did soften. Below the surface alternating layers of firm crusts, weak wet snow, and strong rounded grains exist. At the moment we aren’t tracking any layers of concern in the upper snowpack As a result any unstable snow should be limited to the surface, or in the case of glides, the ground. 

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