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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2014–Mar 17th, 2014

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Confidence

Fair - Due to the quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska will feed moisture onto the coast and into the interior for the next 4 or 5 days.Tonight: Cloudy with flurries, 5 to 10 cm of precipitation, freezing level around 200 metres winds from the west  25 to 35 Km/hr.Monday: Cloudy, trace of precipitation in the forecast, freezing level around 500 metres, winds from the west, 25 Km/hr.Tuesday: Cloudy with flurries, possible 5 to 10 cm of precipitation,, freezing level around 1000 metres winds from the south west light occasionally gusting to moderate.Wednesday: Sunny with cloudy periods and isolated flurries, 5 to 10 cm of precipitation expected, freezing level rises to around 1300 metres, winds light from the west, gusting moderate to strong.

Avalanche Summary

No reports of avalanche activity on Sunday at time of publishing, but this is more likely a result of the lack of observations rather than lack of avalanche activity. Widespread activity  has been expected for Saturday night and Sunday as the storm passes through the area..

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm snow is sitting on a a variety of weak layers that includes well-developed sun crust on solar aspects, surface hoar in sheltered areas, and a widespread temperature/rain crust at lower elevations. Strong SW storm winds are forming new wind slabs on lee slopes.The warm weather has resulted in good settlement of the snowpack and most of the layers are now well bonded. There are still two weak layers that remain a concern but these problems are becoming more isolated. However, the weight of the new storm snow may reactivate these layers. With recent storm snow loading, the March layer should now be down close to 100cm and the early February layer should be roughly 1.8m. It seems like these persistent weak layers are more of a concern in the northern parts of the region but they may still pose a threat in the Coquihalla and south and east towards Manning Park.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.