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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 4th, 2015–Jan 5th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

We may see up to 8cm of snow overnight with calm winds but not enough to raise the current avalanche danger.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Up to 5cm of new snow is forecast overnight with continued cold temperatures.  Winds will continue to be light out of the NW but we can expect the temperatures to slowly increase up to the -10C range.

Avalanche Summary

One recent Na sz 1.5 on a NE aspect at 2300m.  40m wide, ran for 80m and was 20-30cm deep.  Suspect it failed on top of the 1213CR. 

Snowpack Summary

Light flurries continue along the divide with snowfalls totalling up to 5cm over the past 24hrs.  HST amounts are now up to 10-15cm with generally light winds.  New thin windslabs are building in alpine terrain.  Still lots of vaiability within the snowpack.  The Dec 13th Crust is being found up to 2200m throughout the forecast area.  This seems to be more of a eastern rockies feature and not being found as high in areas further to the west.  The midpack is generally 1F to P hard but in thinner areas it is more weak and facetted.  The 1106CR is facetting out in many areas but we have still seen some activity on this layer over the past week.  This is mainly in areas closer to the divide and not around the Smith Dorrien Corridor. 

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.