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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 4th, 2014–Jan 5th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

When the winds pick up we can expect another cycle to begin. Keep an eye out for quickly changing conditions. Be flexible in your trips and don't hesitate to change plans.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

The cold temps will peak tonight with a warming trend slowly moving in for the rest of the week. There is no new snow expected in the immediate future. Only clear skies. The winds will stay out of the north and range in values. They will peak at 70km/hr (3000m) tonight.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday's large natural avalanches appear to have been limited to a very specific region. A snow study flight today only offered a view of moderate sized avalanches in the alpine storm snow.

Snowpack Summary

A lack of wind has left the storm snow relatively undisturbed at all elevations. The total storm snow amounts to 35cm's near the divide. The interface between new and old snow had a repeatable instability that shows up in stability tests (Compression test moderate(14) sudden planar). The snow beneath the new storm snow varies depending on elevation & aspect. Alpine areas tend to have a windslab and treeline and below has a mix of isolated windslabs and facets. Deeper down the facet/depth hoar combo is still considered weak, despite the travel improving. In every sense of the word, the snowpack is considered to be variable.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.